Ben Francisco's Official Baseball Postseason Thread (No. 10)

Oh Brad Lidge. I fear this will not end well.

 

Zero, if those kids' parents are at all competent.

 

Lidge has thrown one fastball, by my count (to get Giambi to pop up).

Tulo is going to fucking snot clobber anything that hangs.

 

Weak.

 

Good work Tulo.

 

David Aldridge is reporting the Rockies are playing the Phillies in the NLDS. More news on this as it develops.

 

I don't think anyone's ever confused Nick Punto with a celebrity.

 

Okay, as promised last night, insomniac stathead theater analyzes the Anaheim Angels running game. This is some back-of-the-napkin stuff and not meant to be absolutely golden by any means.

The Angels stole 148 bases and were caught 63 times. League averages were 110 and 39, meaning they got 38 extra bases and 24 extra outs. Linear weighting puts stolen bases at about 0.3 runs and outs at about -0.5 runs, so by this measure they more or less broke even on stolen bases.

The Angels were picked off 25 times, 7 more than the league average. That's another -3.5 runs.

So far, nothing too bad. But what really killed them was outs on the bases. They were out on the basepaths 78 times, easily first in the league and 23 more than the average AL team. (Not the sort of stat you want to see when you are about to play Derek Jeter's team). That's another 11.5 runs thrown away.

They had 173 "bases taken" (bases taken on tag ups, walks, wild pitches, passed balls and defensive indifference), second only to the Twins and 29 ahead of the league average. Give them another 8.7 runs.

Where they really excelled was taking extra bases on base hits. The Angels led the league in taking an extra base on a base hit (1st to 3rd, 2nd to home on a single or first to home on a double) 48% of the time, against a league average of 39%. They went 1st to 3rd on 127/367 singles, they went 2nd to home on 161/223 singles, and they went first to home on 42 of 92 doubles. That puts them roughly 65 bases advanced ahead of the league average rate, given their total number of chances. Or 19.5 runs.

So by this rough calculation, the Angels' offense produced an extra 12.7 runs of value from their baserunning, which translates to a little less than 1.5 wins. Definitely significant.

Or, if you don't like linear weights and run translations, just say that they took 132 extra bases compared to a league average team with baserunning, almost one per game. They also made 54 more baserunning outs than the average team, exactly one every three games.

Expect the Angels' baserunning to be a big part of the LCS, although it remains to be seen in whose favor.

 

Right now, you need to aerate, lime, fertilize and seed.

 

Not as thourough, but I thought the speed of the LAa would have translated into fewer doubles hit against them (tighter outfield gaps). This was not the case.

LAa pitchers gave up 298 doubles, just about what every other active team gave up.

 

We don't blame you. Who would want to?