baseball hall of fame inductions

Kind of odd seeing Rickey in the Hall. Growing up as an A's fan he was the first player to come along who I followed for his entire career. He'd come out and wave at us kids in the left field bleachers, signed autographs after the game (he didn't give us pens), those A's teams in the late 70s early 80s were great to watch because they were stocked with players that hadn't had a lot of major league success before. I'd love it if the A's signed him for one game later this year and he played on "Rickey Henderson Day." That would be sweet.

 

Yes, Gossage was so, so afraid of a hitter who hit .235 against him, with a homer and four measly RBI in 34 career at-bats. Rice also grounded into more double plays (1) against Gossage than times he drew a walk (0).

Perhaps The Goose was a little full of shit on this one.

 

So, Rick, if getting hits is more luck than skill, what good are "clutch-situation" stats? Wouldn't they just show who was luckiest?

 

They aren't any good, and clutch performance significantly better than your normal performance is almost always just good luck. But since some people cannot be convinced of that, I was simply pointing out that even under the assumption that some players have innate clutch abilities, there are better ways to measure how good a player is at driving in runs than just counting the raw total.

 

Here's an example of what I mean by RBI ratio, and why RickStain is correct in pointing out that just looking at RBI totals is limited:

Here's the top 5 RBI totals in the NL last year:
1. Howard (PHI) 146
2. Wright (NYM) 124
3. Gonzalez (SDP) 119
4. Pujols (STL) 116
5. Delgado (NYM) 115

And here's how many plate appearances with RISP each of those guys had:
1. Wright, 229 (46 H, 189 AB, .246 BA, .703 OPS, 78 RBI)
2. Howard, 223 (56 H, 175 AB, .320 BA, 1.028 OPS, 90 RBI)
3. Delgado, 208 (45 H, 164 AB, .274 BA, .920 OPS, 80 RBI)
4. Gonzalez, 194 (52 H, 160 AB, .325 BA, 1.028 OPS, 80 RBI)
5. Pujols, 176 (39 H, 115 AB, .339 BA, 1.201 OPS, 75 RBI)

RBI ratio (RBI divided by PA w/ RISP)
1. Pujols, .426
2. Gonzalez, .412
3. Howard, .404
4. Delgado, .385
5. Wright, .314

So what this tells you is that Pujols and Gonzalez, despite finishing far behind Howard in RBI total, were significantly better at converting their RBI opportunities. They just didn't get as many, because their teammates weren't as good at getting into scoring position in front of them.

If you look at Wright's 124 RBI and think he was good at driving in runs -- think again. In fact, he was far worse than his own teammate, Delgado, who would have driven in about 135 runs if he had the same number of opportunities as Wright did. And if Pujols had the same number of opportunities as Howard? He would have led the league with 153 RBI instead of the 116 he actually had.

Of course, he didn't.

But if you really want to talk about the importance of "getting hits when they matter," then you have to acknowledge that some guys have a LOT more opportunities to get those hits.

 

Thanks for the link, Spnited. I really enjoyed the story of a guy I remember calling games on NBC when I was a tike.

 

Pujols was significantly better than Howard; Gonzalez was marginally better (same OPS, .325 to ,320 BA, .412 to .404 RBI ratio).
I'm not arguing for Wright because I've seen him leave far too many men in scoring position despite 4 years of 100+ RBI.
And I have acknowledged that RBI is an opportunity stat but some guys don't take very good advantage of those opportunities and to say RBI is a crappy or insignificant stat if moronic.


And there is the other little fact that Howard drove in 56 runs in ABs without runners in scoring position. Of course, according to Stain, those runs don't mean anything.

 

If you could kindly provide the quote where I said anything of the sort?

 

"RBIs are a crappy stat" ... "data shows that getting hits when they matter is much more luck than skill."

Buck provided good stats; you provide bullshit opinion.

 

David Wright career average: .320 batting average, .391 OBP, .523 SLG
David Wright career average with RISP: .305 .398 .497
David Wright career average with men on: .316 .400 .536

David Wright career RBI per PA w/RISP: 0.369
Major league average: 0.304

Conclusion: David Wright isn't leaving an unusually high number of runners on base.

 

That quote says nothing like what you just accused me of saying.

RBIs are a crap stat because slugging percentage is a much better predictor of driving in runs in the future than RBIs themselves are. If you choose to believe in clutch hitting, then SLG + clutch hitting splits would be better than RBIs.

Since Howard's HRs would presumably drive up his SLG, it would be lying to accuse me of saying his home runs don't matter.

 

Yes, slugging percentage is such a great indicator of driving in runs that the Dodgers are 16th in baseball in slugging pct. and seventh in runs scored. And the Rangers are 3rd in slugging and 11th in runs scored.

I'm not here to predict the future. I'm trying to see who scores more runs than the other guy and wins more games in the present.