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Are retail jobs going the way of farming and manufacturing?

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, May 23, 2013.

  1. KJIM

    KJIM Well-Known Member

    When I went to Greece, I stayed with a hairdresser. She has chosen the professional because she could up and move anywhere and always have a job.

    Honestly, if I did it all again with the knowledge I have now, I'd more than likely go one of three routes: massage, barber or bartending school.
     
  2. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Because I think that's shorthand he uses to express his basic Chicago school philosophy about economics. But he knows about externalities, that businesses should have to internalize the full cost of their endeavors, rather than pushing off costs onto the rest of us (example: air pollution). And he knows about collective action problems - i.e. the difficulty in getting a start-up industry off the round because nobody wants to be the one to put in the substantial costs at the outset. For example, on a more micro scale, this is why we have patent protection.
     
  3. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    I imagine that Amazon Prime is taking a sizable portion of sales from Target, Best Buy, Kohl's and other stores.

    http://www.amazon.com/DeLonghi-EC155-Espresso-Cappuccino-Maker/dp/B000F49XXG/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1369319237&sr=8-1&keywords=espresso+machine

    http://www.amazon.com/DeLonghi-EC702-15-Bar-Pump-Espresso-Stainless/dp/B001CNG7RY/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1369319237&sr=8-2&keywords=espresso+machine

    http://www.amazon.com/Breville-BES860XL-Barista-Express-Espresso/dp/B002S51RQG/ref=sr_1_6?ie=UTF8&qid=1369319237&sr=8-6&keywords=espresso+machine

    http://www.amazon.com/Bialetti-Express-6-Cup-Stovetop-Espresso/dp/B000CNY6UK/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1369319237&sr=8-9&keywords=espresso+machine
     
  4. cranberry

    cranberry Well-Known Member

    Technological advancement and shifting in the labor market are always happening and should be viewed positively. So I'm not that concerned so much about a reduction in crummy retail jobs; it's the way wages and benefits in all low-skill jobs (retail, service industry, warehouse, etc.) haven't kept up with overall economic growth, exacerbating the gap with skilled (college educated) workers.

    The following op-ed piece suggests no one wants to talk about the increasing gap between college- and the high school-educated people who typically fill these low-skill jobs. Much of the problem has to do with the decimation of private-sector labor unions (now down to about seven percent of the private sector labor force) in the past 30 years, which has kept an entire class of people from sharing in economic growth.

    http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/18/the-1-percent-are-only-half-the-problem/

    This is the gap that makes it pretty clear who shops at Wal-Mart and who shops at Trader Joe's.
     
  5. 93Devil

    93Devil Well-Known Member

    Trader Joe's is less expensive than Wal Mart. Whole Foods on the other hand...
     
  6. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    So has the student-loan debt they carry into their 20s and 30, correct?

    What I'd like to see is the "break even" point. At what age do you start coming out ahead? Because a 22-year-old with $80,000 in student loan debt isn't going to be living any better than the high school grad with four years of work experience and no (school) debt . . . for a few years anyway.
     
  7. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    You can't centrally-plan how the world is going to evolve. To think so isn't just arrogant, it has been disastrous in practice over and over again.

    I am pointing out that this has been an ages-long phenomenon. It has accelerated in the last 100 years as technology advances have accelerated, but it's nothing new.

    Whenever technology and productivity gains takes away the need for people to perform tasks (or have their jobs doing those things), it frees up time to do other things. We NATURALLY shift those resources into things that increase our standard of living -- and what drives it is demand for things. What people actually want. Not what some centralized manager prescribes for us.

    When we started to be able to grow more food with fewer people laboring in fields, that is what we saw. And with human wants and needs (for a better life) being virtually unlimited, it frees us up to create DIFFERENT kinds of jobs. In the 20th Century, the freed up manpower was able to create a manufacturing economy that put more goods cheaply in front of people than the world had ever seen. There was demand for those goods (what drove the supply) -- and the jobs followed that demand, in order to create that supply. We no longer needed as many people growing the food we eat, and it freed up that manpower to create a whole new economy we couldn't even think about when people were struggling to just raise enough food to eat. In the process, we boosted our standard of living.

    As the manufacturing economy has required fewer and fewer workers to produce goods, and supply chains have become globalized, it has freed up resources for burgeoning technology and services economies. This is still a trend playing its way out. But it will. And supply will be created organically to meet demand for things that become possible. And that will mean jobs.

    It has already led to an information technology boom that has increased our standard of living. Think about all the things we have today that didn't exist 30 or 40 years ago. Smart phones and cheap cellular phone service. The World Wide Web. Online shopping. It goes on and on. That is a whole new economy that didn't exist.

    As that continues to play out, we are seeing things like bricks and mortar retail become less relevant. And that is going to mean losing jobs. But the manpower it frees up is going to allow us to satisfy our unlimited wants and needs in other ways. Which will mean even more of an evolving economy. We keep what we already had, but more becomes possible. And we can have it all, with fewer resources necessary to have those things.

    But a guy in a suit in Washington D.C. can't steer that (forget the fact that that guy is invariably corrupt, or the notion that the U.S. is the only place that can dictate how the world is going to look, when we live in a GLOBALIZED economy). Demand grows organically from actual human wants and needs. Not from centralized planning.
     
  8. JayFarrar

    JayFarrar Well-Known Member

    I think most retail people will tell you that self checkout lines aren't that effective.

    They aren't always the best customer experience because of various technical problems, and shoplifting goes up as more people use them.
     
  9. cranberry

    cranberry Well-Known Member

    No question the cost of higher education is driving a stake in the middle of the gap and it's also hurting the economy by sending people into the working world who are saddled with tens of thousands of dollars in debt before they start. These are the young people who might otherwise be spending on big-ticket items like homes and cars.
     
  10. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Well, sure. And, at first, TVs didn't sound great as compared to radios. Presumably, the technology will improve over time and, with it, the experience. And if there are shoplifting losses, I imagine that they are more than offset by the lower labor costs.

    The concept of self checkout, just like the concept of online shopping, is an improvement over human cashiers. The execution is another matter, of course.
     
  11. Armchair_QB

    Armchair_QB Well-Known Member

    One of the grocery chains here added three self-check lines to its store for about six months and wound up taking them out and replacing them with manned check-outs because shoplifting went way up.
     
  12. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    If young people enter the workforce saddled with substantial student loan debt, it is reasonable to assume that their portion of aggregate demand will be lower. However, you also have to assume that someone else's portion of aggregate demand is higher as a result of those education expenditures. That debt just doesn't appear on students' balance sheets without also appearing on someone else's income statement.
     
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