Another 2012 Presidential Poll

Silver had something again today, as have a lot of other polling stories, that the swing-state numbers are all going Obama's way even as the national numbers head toward Romney.

 

Totally reliant on FiveThirtyEight, whose data suggests the bleeding has stopped and Obama has begun separating again.

 

I really think, when it comes down to it, evangelicals and folks like Southern Baptists are going to have a hard time voting for a Mormon. And faced with the choice of voting for a Mormon or a president they can't abide, many will just stay home, swinging the election to the current administration.

 

I think this comes down to Romney constantly flip flopping depending on the crowd he is speaking to and the fact he has admitted to wanting to give the rich a tax break. A lot of the middle or undecided voters will think of that while at the poll.

As with anything, there are a lot of reasons but those are the main ones in my eyes.

 

Based on everything I've seen, the vote that matters (EC) will go Obama's way

 

Sticking with my year-old prediction:

Obama 52-48, 300 EVs.

 

After last night's debate, I have a hard time seeing Romney winning. To beat an incumbent, you have to have one who is severely damaged, and you have to come with a strong campaign that provides a clear alternative. Even if you argue Obama is severely damaged (and I wouldn't), Romney's not providing a clear alternative -- at least not one that 50 percent of the voting population wants.

We'll be back for at least another two years of Dem president, Republican House and Dem Senate.

 

The brief "it's a RACE!!!! OMG!!! OMG!!!!!" talk from the media was quaint and all, but Obama has had this locked ever since the GOP nominated the Robot and the Frat Boy.

Put another way: If people believed so strongly in Obama four years ago, they should be expected to come out in large numbers to vote to give him more time to become what they hoped he could be.

 

Obama continues with approval ratings that cannot crack 50%. Incumbents do not win with approval ratings and right/track ratings in the mid-40s.

 

Ohio isn't budging away from Obama thanks to the differences on the auto bailout, and the electoral math isn't plausible for Romney without it.

 

Since my last post went poof, I get another shot, right?

This, via David Grann on Twitter, puts the electoral votes battle into perspective: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/23/romneys_steep_path_to_270.html