Andrew Luck going back to Stanford -- skipping NFL draft

That risk/reward is going to change pretty dramatically in the new CBA. If there's a rookie cap, the difference between being #1 and #20 is going to be a couple mil at the most instead of 30 mil. Also, as Bradford showed, even an injury isn't going to cause a free-fall. If you're Jake Locker and it turns out you aren't very good, then yes, you have problems. But I think Luck is beyond that.

 

So who does Carolina take? The DE from Clemson?

 

Yeah, who's the first pick now? Bowers, Fairley, Gabbert, AJ Green even?

 

That would be my guess. How happy is Jimmy Clausen today?

 

I remember talking to a scout who told me that you don't ever draft a receiver or DB with the No. 1 pick. I think this was the year Fitzgerald went No. 3. I'm trying to think if a DB has ever gone No. 1.

I'm guessing it will be Bowers or whoever the top QB is now.

 

I wonder if any of that will change when the rookie cap comes in. I still wouldn't draft a receiver or a DB with the first pick, but part of the problem is, whomever you drafted No. 1, you had to pay a stupid amount of money, so you might as well take a gamble on a quarterback. It's like Alex Smith, the year he went No. 1. No one really bought into the fact that he would be worth going No. 1, but the 49ers kind of had no choice.

If it becomes like the NBA, and first-round picks can only make a slotted amount of money, you may see teams drafting more for need.

 

Since the trade for a rookie salary cap is likely to be a limit on rookie contract length to three years, Luck won't cost himself too much dough if he can play.

 

Matt Leinart did this a few years ago, and it didn't turn out so great for him in the professional ranks.

Granted, Luck seems to have a better noggin attached to his shoulders.

 

As a Pacers fanboi looser, I will have to ask that you please not remind me of that.

Or that the Pacers could have had Jordan if they hadn't traded the pick that became Sam Bowie for Tom Fucking Owens.

 

Unless, of course, Carolina sucks next year too and has the No. 1 pick again.

 

1. I'm not so sure this is a mistake, mainly because of the uncertainty of the NFL labor situation for next year. If he declares for the draft, he loses his college eligibility immediately, IIRC. Certainly he loses it if he signs with an agent. If he does this and the league has a lockout that wipes out much or all of the 2011 season (as happened to the NHL in 2004-05), he's screwed. It's a risk either way he goes; better to take the risk that will at least allow him to complete his degree, IMO.

2. The bigger question is does this give insight as to the way the labor dispute is headed? Does Luck see the writing on the wall re: a work stoppage?