And Why Wouldn't Oil Rise?

Pete Incaviglia · Aug 11, 2008

Still don't think speculators are to blame for rising oil prices — at least in (major) part?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7553461.stm

And I quote:

BP has a 30% stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the world's second largest, that runs from Azerbaijan through southern Georgia into Turkey and can transport up to 1.2 million barrels of oil a day.

A smaller pipeline also runs to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa.

A BP spokesman said the pipeline had not been damaged by the fighting. But reports said a fire had disabled the pipeline last week before the conflict erupted.
Click to expand...

Oil's been falling despite the fire. But the war, which hasn't damaged the pipeline, has made it rise. Go figure.

slappy4428 · Aug 11, 2008

It's an election year.

hondo · Aug 11, 2008

Pete Incaviglia said:

Still don't think speculators are to blame for rising oil prices — at least in (major) part?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7553461.stm

And I quote:

BP has a 30% stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the world's second largest, that runs from Azerbaijan through southern Georgia into Turkey and can transport up to 1.2 million barrels of oil a day.

A smaller pipeline also runs to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa.

A BP spokesman said the pipeline had not been damaged by the fighting. But reports said a fire had disabled the pipeline last week before the conflict erupted.
Click to expand...

Oil's been falling despite the fire. But the war, which hasn't damaged the pipeline, has made it rise. Go figure.
Click to expand...

Because if you had read further, or other articles, you would have found out that only 1 percent of the world's oil goes through that pipeline.

Pete Incaviglia · Aug 11, 2008

hondo said:

Pete Incaviglia said:

Still don't think speculators are to blame for rising oil prices — at least in (major) part?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7553461.stm

And I quote:

BP has a 30% stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the world's second largest, that runs from Azerbaijan through southern Georgia into Turkey and can transport up to 1.2 million barrels of oil a day.

A smaller pipeline also runs to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa.

A BP spokesman said the pipeline had not been damaged by the fighting. But reports said a fire had disabled the pipeline last week before the conflict erupted.
Click to expand...

Oil's been falling despite the fire. But the war, which hasn't damaged the pipeline, has made it rise. Go figure.
Click to expand...

Because if you had read further, or other articles, you would have found out that only 1 percent of the world's oil goes through that pipeline.
Click to expand...

Even worse. One percent is "jeopardy" or "at risk" because of the conflict. Yet it's on the rise.

So, when a fire disabled the pipeline that carries one percent of the world's oil, the price was falling. When a war broke out and didn't disrupt the pipeline that carries one percent of the world's oil, prices rose.

hondo · Aug 11, 2008

Pete Incaviglia said:

hondo said:

Pete Incaviglia said:

Still don't think speculators are to blame for rising oil prices — at least in (major) part?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7553461.stm

And I quote:

BP has a 30% stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the world's second largest, that runs from Azerbaijan through southern Georgia into Turkey and can transport up to 1.2 million barrels of oil a day.

A smaller pipeline also runs to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa.

A BP spokesman said the pipeline had not been damaged by the fighting. But reports said a fire had disabled the pipeline last week before the conflict erupted.
Click to expand...

Oil's been falling despite the fire. But the war, which hasn't damaged the pipeline, has made it rise. Go figure.
Click to expand...

Because if you had read further, or other articles, you would have found out that only 1 percent of the world's oil goes through that pipeline.
Click to expand...

Even worse. One percent is "jeopardy" or "at risk" because of the conflict. Yet it's on the rise.

So, when a fire disabled the pipeline that carries one percent of the world's oil, the price was falling. When a war broke out and didn't disrupt the pipeline that carries one percent of the world's oil, prices rose.
Click to expand...

Huh?

Pete Incaviglia · Aug 11, 2008

hondo said:

Pete Incaviglia said:

hondo said:

Pete Incaviglia said:

Still don't think speculators are to blame for rising oil prices — at least in (major) part?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7553461.stm

And I quote:

BP has a 30% stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the world's second largest, that runs from Azerbaijan through southern Georgia into Turkey and can transport up to 1.2 million barrels of oil a day.

A smaller pipeline also runs to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa.

A BP spokesman said the pipeline had not been damaged by the fighting. But reports said a fire had disabled the pipeline last week before the conflict erupted.
Click to expand...

Oil's been falling despite the fire. But the war, which hasn't damaged the pipeline, has made it rise. Go figure.
Click to expand...

Because if you had read further, or other articles, you would have found out that only 1 percent of the world's oil goes through that pipeline.
Click to expand...

Even worse. One percent is "jeopardy" or "at risk" because of the conflict. Yet it's on the rise.

So, when a fire disabled the pipeline that carries one percent of the world's oil, the price was falling. When a war broke out and didn't disrupt the pipeline that carries one percent of the world's oil, prices rose.
Click to expand...

Huh?
Click to expand...

I'm saying, neither pipeline have been damaged by the war, although both are within the area. And the one that was damaged, was damaged weeks ago and nothing changed. Now, all of a sudden, with war, but still no damage done and no stoppage, the price is rising.

The Big Ragu · Aug 11, 2008

We are in a worldwide recession. Demand is tapering off, which is why the price has come down some.

Oil is still headed to $200 a barrel. A year and a half seemed likely at the beginning of this year, but it could be a little longer depending on how long the world economy is in a slump. Economies will cycle back up, demand will increase and the price will continue its ascent.

Ultimately, this is going to be a supply story, as in they can't pump enough of the stuff to meet increasing demand, even if they tried (and they don't).

Looking at the price of oil on a day by day, or week by week or month by month basis misses the long-term trend, which is that the price is only heading much higher unless the world finds a cheaper primary energy source and no longer needs oil.

dixiehack · Aug 11, 2008

Pete Incaviglia said:

hondo said:

Pete Incaviglia said:

hondo said:

Pete Incaviglia said:

Still don't think speculators are to blame for rising oil prices — at least in (major) part?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7553461.stm

And I quote:

BP has a 30% stake in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the world's second largest, that runs from Azerbaijan through southern Georgia into Turkey and can transport up to 1.2 million barrels of oil a day.

A smaller pipeline also runs to the Georgian Black Sea port of Supsa.

A BP spokesman said the pipeline had not been damaged by the fighting. But reports said a fire had disabled the pipeline last week before the conflict erupted.
Click to expand...

Oil's been falling despite the fire. But the war, which hasn't damaged the pipeline, has made it rise. Go figure.
Click to expand...

Because if you had read further, or other articles, you would have found out that only 1 percent of the world's oil goes through that pipeline.
Click to expand...

Even worse. One percent is "jeopardy" or "at risk" because of the conflict. Yet it's on the rise.

So, when a fire disabled the pipeline that carries one percent of the world's oil, the price was falling. When a war broke out and didn't disrupt the pipeline that carries one percent of the world's oil, prices rose.
Click to expand...

Huh?
Click to expand...

I'm saying, neither pipeline have been damaged by the war, although both are within the area. And the one that was damaged, was damaged weeks ago and nothing changed. Now, all of a sudden, with war, but still no damage done and no stoppage, the price is rising.
Click to expand...

Part of what is being priced in now is the threat of conflict spreading to the wider region.

joe_schmoe · Aug 11, 2008

Except for one thing...the price didn't rise. It rose from the low of the day, but it opened the day at 115.20. it ended the day at 114.45. If that's rising then I'm lost.
Sure it went below 113 and went back up on the day, but it does something similar every single day, as does the Dow and the NASDAQ. The price rises and falls during the day.

Boom_70 · Aug 11, 2008

The Big Ragu said:

We are in a worldwide recession. Demand is tapering off, which is why the price has come down some.

Oil is still headed to $200 a barrel. A year and a half seemed likely at the beginning of this year, but it could be a little longer depending on how long the world economy is in a slump. Economies will cycle back up, demand will increase and the price will continue its ascent.

Ultimately, this is going to be a supply story, as in they can't pump enough of the stuff to meet increasing demand, even if they tried (and they don't).

Looking at the price of oil on a day by day, or week by week or month by month basis misses the long-term trend, which is that the price is only heading much higher unless the world finds a cheaper primary energy source and no longer needs oil.
Click to expand...

Hey Ragu I hope you shorted oil in past couple of week. If so you have made a small fortune.

The Big Ragu · Aug 11, 2008

Nope. But I am not smart enough to predict week-by-week moves. Long-term, lasting trends are much easier to spot.

Football_Bat · Aug 11, 2008

Maybe we should invade Iran after all, at this rate.

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And Why Wouldn't Oil Rise?

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And Why Wouldn't Oil Rise?

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