And on the Republican side for 2008

I can't believe you're giving away that kind of hard-won wisdom for free, John.

I really think McCain is in trouble with the war. I think his sticking with it will appeal to the conservative base -- he has tried his best to show that he is a loyal Republican over the past few months -- and that might get him through the primary, but he'll have a hard time selling it in the general election. A lot of good needs to happen between now and 2008 for him to stand a real chance, no matter who the Democrats run against him.

 

I do think McCain's position on the war will cause him problems, but let's remember, the country re-elected GWB with the same thing hanging around his neck. The war isn't going to be the only issue. When it all boils down to it, the presidential election -- whether you like it or not -- will come down to who the people like more and who the people trust more. If it's John McCain vs. Hillary. My money is Hillary. If it's John McCain vs. Barak Obama, I wouldn't come near to betting on it. That's the matchup Republicans fear. Obama could be the biggest bust in politics or he could be the next JFK. Nobody knows.

 

Well, here's some trouble.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Political%20Tracking/Presidential%20Match-Ups/McCainvs.ObamaEdwards20070123.htm

And that 29-point drop among NH Independents in last week's ARG poll isn't good, either.

 

I think McCain will be fine once he gets out of Iowa and New Hampshire. He'll do well in the south, not because that's his strength, but because no real Republican threat has the true conservative vote locked. So the South will vote for the popular guy. He'll clean up out west as well. The deeper we get into primaries, the more McCain will win, because I think the voters will start voting on more than just the war.

Edwards, I think, will sound too liberal to the country and that will cost him in the primaries. Hillary's going to draw the old hands among the Democrats. Obama is going to get the new-age Democrats and the people looking for a change. I just don't think Edwards is anything more than a strong VP candidate. But if Hillary wins the Democratic nominee, the Republicans could stick just about anybody out there and win. Hillary's unfavorables are very bad. People either love her or hate her. There's no middle ground she can pick up to win the election. That's where Obama could make noise.

 

Ha ha, I assume you joking - but I know some things & can connect to the younger audience/voters. I have my plans, maybe another TV show or perhaps a newsletter -we will see. Till then, you get it for free.

Ok, let's break this down.

Why is McCain the one to beat?

Why would Reps (let alone conservative Reps) like this guy?

Tell me that?

Well - he is pro-war.

Sorry most Reps are not single issue when it comes to the war - that is on your side - plus McCain flip-flops on so much none of us trust him.

What do we care about?

Less taxes
Less government
National security
More individual freedom & liberty

How is McCain on those issues? Is there anyone else that conservatives think is better on those issues?

Those are the main ones we all agree on then you throw in the "values" issues and immigration policy & you see things get more complex.

So, the Q is where is reliably McCain on most of those additional issues?

Answer pretty soft - which you may love but kills him with a lot of the Rep Primary voters.

It is going to be hard to predict but I know a lot of inside conservatives that look at McCain and say he is not our guy.

Let me make an analogy - its like me telling you that Joe Lieberman will be the Dem candidate if the media were flush with conservatives and Joe L got the kind of positive press McCain did.

Finally it is so early to tell anything & these proclamations that Dems automatically win & Hilary beats all or Rep choice HAS to be McCain - that is just comedy

John

 

SCE - ok this is pretty good stuff. People are starting to think and getting off the Knee-jerk personal feelings.

McCain's BEST chance is if others start slow and he can coast off of his name ID (I don't think his likeability is a plus but a neutral (war hero vs bad temper & flip-floper).

I would say almost like Bob Dole candidacy (but everyone liked Bob and full Rep political machine was behind his run - so a bit dif there but it makes the point)

Edwards = nothing for prez at first glance but he has done some solid work below the radar with unions & retail politicking in early states. So, we will see - ultimately I agree with you VP slot best shot.

Also agree Hilary is at the same time the strongest & weakest candidate on left. Any good Rep candidate without horrible negative events for Reps gives her problems as she beats herself in many ways, but she will have a hard 40+% and is not going anywhere.

Obama - big ? but I sense this is most likely more bark then bite and will peak out in about 2-4 months. However, he is an X factor & many want to see him do well if for no other reason to offer an alternative to Hilary. I just think she is a bigger fish than he can deal with. She is already starting to hit him. Attacks appearing to come from the right are most likely traced back to H08.

Think about it. We have no reason to hit him now we want him to beat her up (if possible) and spend her money & when she hits him back she raises her negs and likely lowers enthusiam with some sectors to vote on your side (particularly for her). Not saying that is good or fair - just saying how it is.

John

 

It's those type of statements that lead people to believe you're a buffoon. McCain is not "pro-war." I doubt you can find any person who is "pro-war." McCain believes that a troop surge is the best way to win the War in Iraq. Will it work? I don't know. But to say he's "pro-war" is pretty ludicrous.

Two out of four ain't bad. You're batting .500 (probably 'roided up for the thread). People vote because of less taxes and national security. I really doubt anybody gives a damn about less government. I sure don't wake up and wonder, gee, I wonder why why we have an assistant undersecretary for whogivesashit. I don't think people worry about individual freedoms and liberties. We've got a constitution that affords us those rights. We don't really need to add much more, do we? People want lower taxes (Republicans are good at that; managing a deficit, not really our speciality) and national security (jumpball).

But you're right, it is too early. I'm just speculating on my part. I don't pretend to know all the answers (like you do), but I do have most of my hair, so I'm doing good in that department.

 

Nonsensical bullshit, whatever.

 

I agree with just about everything you wrote there. Yeah, I'm shocked, too.

 

Mr Villarreal,

If you've been studying politics all your life and vote Republican, keep studying.

YHS, etc

 

Fof --

He's sure there's a pony under there somewhere.

Regards, etc.

 

Like I said, I know some things