And on the Republican side for 2008

If the war is still ongoing next spring, which I feel is a safe bet, McCain won't get the nomination. The Republicans know they can't stand by the war again. Giuliani, whose national security halo is firmly in place, would be the favorite by then.
Romney? Please. If he didn't have the guts to take on the Massachusetts state legislature, I don't see him as our man against Osama.

 

McCain's problem is the age-old adage ... "When Democrats act like Republicans, they win; when Republicans act like Democrats, they lose." McCain is a liberal Republican who will not play well to the conservative base of the party.

Giuliani is the "defense" candidate, but he has way too many personal-life skeletons in his closet -- then again, Clinton was able to overcome his. Problem is, enough people are tired of the war (as evidenced by the midterms) that a constant reminder of 9/11 probably isn't going to make it to the WH.

The "outsider" candidates will have a good shot here. Had George Allen not been held up for public crucifixion last fall, he would probably be a frontrunner from the conservative base. That leaves Romney or Thompson almost as default candidates (though Thompson has Bush WH ties).

 

Mike,

I know we are both Massachusetts guys. One who wants to be here, and the other looking for the quickest way out, but I warn you. Don't count out Romney too fast.
That's what the Republicans did in our governor election with Deval and look what happened.
Anything can happen when you have 100s of thousands of fanatics voting.

 

It is vaguely possible that Mitt will a) establish himself as everybody's No. 2 choice which, in a huge field, isn't a bad thing to be, and b) be an R with no attachment at all to the ongoing unmentionable in Iraq. I don't count him out, RSC. Not this early.

 

I agree.

Because if there's one thing we've learned in the past decade, it's that there's no substitute for good old comic relief in the Oval Office.

 

Newtie drops out as soon as he discovers there's no crown involved.

 

I think John McCain wins the Republican nominee. He's the most popular and he's the one Republicans feel can win the election. Mitt Romney might be the better candidate for the job, but once he dips below the Mason-Dixon line, his days are done. People in the South are not going to vote for a Mormon. Guiliani has too much baggage, so he's out.

 

Let me restate my forecast. To win the general election, the Republican candidate is going to have to come up with some understandable code phrase for "I'll get us the fuck out of Iraq" without alienating the 25 percent of voters who're sticking with that debacle come what may.
Not easy. My position is while Giuliani has the American hero cred to pull off such a stunt (like Ike's "I will go to Korea"), Romney does not.

 

Sirs, Madames,

Caught Huckabee on Russert Sunday. So many in the hunt it's gonna look like March Madness (this nutjob would be a 16th seed, probably in the play-in game).

YHS, etc

 

I wouldn't count Huckabee out. He is charismatic, has the weight loss story and can become the darling of the religious wing of the base while maintaining appeal for moderates. In March Madness terms, I would consider him a five seed. He's got the talent to go all the way and he is equally likely to flame out in the first round.

 

Yer Holeyness,

I'd hate to see what a 16-seed looks like. Alan Keyes. Lyndon Larouche. David Duke.

YHS, etc

 

I know many liberal media types like to tell the Reps how we are going to vote

But, from someone that has studied politics all his life, actually votes Republican, covered politics, works in Republican politics (many campaigns, attended & participated in 2 National Conventions & a Presidential Inauguration on the inside), and has had several political talk shows here is what I see now.

Rudy & McCain - toss up at this stage w/ a nod to Rudy.

But things will certainly change.

Just like on the Dem side.

My gut tells me people want something different and the "normal" rules will not apply. that doesn't mean a write-in candidate is going to win or anything just that we should see some surprises and I don't think traditional chracter assasination & negative campaigning is going to work as well going forward, nor do I think the War is going to be the issue it is today as it will become more nuanced and largely be taken off the table, or greatly diminished by 2008.

Long way to go here.

To make an analogy - we are barely into spring training & not all the players have reported to camp yet.

John