American League MVP

A-Rod normally waits until October to pull his 0-30 streak........he's a lock for MVP.

Hopefully this is his last year in pinstripes.....

 

A-Rod was born in New York City

 

So was this guy:



My point? None.

 

Unless he's injured tomorrow, A-Rod is winning the MVP... It won't be close either...

 

In other words, it's a ridiculous, bogus, made-up stat.

 

I know some of you don't like the more sophisticated metrics being developed. Some of them make my hair hurt, too. But it's kind of dumb to discount something because you don't quite understand it. Advanced statistical analysis is very useful in baseball and it's not going anywhere.

 

Then please explain to us, Cran, what is WARP3 and exactly what does it prove?

What is the basis for the fictitious "replacement player"? Why were certain values used in inventing this formula? What part of the human element of baseball does it take into account?

How does WARP differ from VORP, or do they use two different fictitious players? And what position do these fictitious players play?

 

spnited...Here's a better explanation of "replacement player" than I could begin to provide for you:

http://www.stathead.com/bbeng/woolner/vorpdescnew.htm

As I mentioned, a lot of the new stats make my hair hurt, too. I'm a 49-year-old guy trying to keep up with this stuff but I'd be foolish to think it's going away if I sit around and mock it.

Like others, you use the "what part of the human element does it take into account" route to attack sabermetrics, but the fact is that nobody suggests that statistics even begin to address the human element. Any organization that analyzes players solely on the basis of stats would be just as stupid as an organization that analyzed players solely on the basis of watching him play a small sample of games.

The other basic tenet that people jump past in their rush to attack statistical evaluation is that no single statistic can possibly address every aspect of the game. In fact, as you correctly point out, statistics alone can't be used to analyze a player.

However, if you use a combination of statistics plus the evaluations of a number of scouts, coaches and trainers, you stand a far better chance of getting an accurate read on player than if you just watch him play and talk to him.

 

Crasn, I find a lot of the newer stats useful.

I find things like VORP and WARP that use fictitious "average" players and arbitrary statistical values to be a steaming pile of shit.

 

The only trendy stats that interest me are OBP and WHIP. Baseball is game where you can extrapolate a gazillion different stats just because the recordkeeping for each game is so meticulous, and much of the game is luck and random results that number geeks try to define finitely (don't get me started on RBI totals and a hitter's average with runners in scoring position vs. when there's no runners in scoring position).

 

I'll give you an opinion once I figure out how they work. Seriously, the "average player" is just a benchmark against which to measure a player's relative value and you need to find out what average is before you can determine whether a player is above or below it.

 

Here's the thing: how do you define average stats to compare to the guy hitting in the No. 3 hole vs. the guy hitting No. 5, vs. the leadoff hitter vs. a No. 8 hitter. Like I said, you can extrapolate a gazillion different sets and rules, and when you try to throw in a "ghost man on first" constant variable. ...