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AL Cy Young

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by buckweaver, Sep 8, 2007.

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Who will win the AL Cy Young this year?

  1. Erik Bedard (BAL)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Josh Beckett (BOS)

    15 vote(s)
    42.9%
  3. John Lackey (LAA)

    2 vote(s)
    5.7%
  4. Dan Haren (OAK)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Johan Santana (MIN)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Kelvim Escobar (LAA)

    1 vote(s)
    2.9%
  7. C.C. Sabathia (CLE)

    14 vote(s)
    40.0%
  8. Justin Verlander (DET)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. Chien-Ming Wang (NYY)

    2 vote(s)
    5.7%
  10. Other

    1 vote(s)
    2.9%
  1. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    Peavy's got the real triple crown.

    Yes, Beckett's got 20 wins. He's also got 29 starts, four fewer than Sabathia, and 194 innings, 23 fewer than Lackey and 40 fewer than Sabathia. He's got a great K/BB ratio, but ... Sabathia has a better one.

    That 0.05-run difference in ERA? It's one run over the course of 234 innings. One run over an entire season. (Seriously, calculate it yourself. (82/234)*9 = 3.153846. (83/234)*9 = 3.192308. That's just one tiny run.)

    I think C.C.'s earned this one.
     
  2. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    buckdub --

    I don't necessarily disagree. It is hard to say Beckett outpitched Sabathia. But it's also hard to say that Sabathia outpitched Beckett.

    I just think Beckett will win.
     
  3. Beaker

    Beaker Active Member

    Sabathia's definitely a close second, but I think Beckett has it locked now. His form of late has been really impressive, and no one else has 20 wins (he's going for 21 tomorrow).
     
  4. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    Oh, I think Beckett will win, too.

    For the same stupid reason B. Colon won his. (And I think you, for one, might remember that particular injustice ...)

    And after looking at the numbers, I don't think it's hard to say Sabathia outpitched Beckett at all. It's very easy for me to say that Sabathia ... has flat-out ... outpitched Beckett. He's outpitched him in every way.

    Except in the W-L record.
     
  5. loveyabye

    loveyabye Guest

    As an Indians fan I agree. However, the Indians have not won a major individual award since Gaylord Perry in '72 and I don't think it's going to happen this year either.

    The biggest slight was 1995 when Mo Vaughn won the MVP award over Albert Belle, and this was before Belle became so Belle-like.

    Belle: .317/50 HR/173 RBI
    Vaughn: .300/39/165
     
  6. mike311gd

    mike311gd Active Member

    I'm not arguing with that. But I don't see him beating Beckett when the votes are counted. Twenty seems like the magic number for pitchers, especially after last season when no one reached the mark. If Beckett gets shelled tomorrow, and Sabathia can put some more distance between them, my view will probably tweak a little. Right now, though, I think Beckett gets the nod -- whether he deserves it or not.
     
  7. mike311gd

    mike311gd Active Member

    Oh, well, C.C. is my answer. The innings clinch it for me; it shows how durable he's been, saving the bullpen every five games. Without him, that pen might be overworked.
     
  8. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    buckdub --

    I know what you're saying, but at the same time, it's not as though either one of them is vastly superior when W-L is discounted -- as was the case with Santana and Colon.

    Beckett's got a slightly lower ERA and WHIP, for instance. Sabathia has certainly pitched MORE than Beckett, and that should probably tip the scales over W-L record.

    You're absolutely right that W-L record still factors in too much, but I don't see this as a particularly egregious example. Beckett has certainly pitched well enough to win the award in most years, and one might even argue that, in the end, Beckett pitching in Boston is a bigger factor than the 20 wins.

    Of course, we're both assuming how the vote will go, so we might just be jerking each other off here.
     
  9. Oz

    Oz Well-Known Member

    I voted for Beckett, because I believe he will win. Sabathia probably ought to win, though.
     
  10. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    Well, let's not go sucking each other's dicks quite yet.

    But you're right that Beckett has pitched well enough to win it most years. I just think Sabathia has pitched much better -- that slightly worse ERA, as I noted, is the difference of a single, solitary run over the same number of innings. I think that's a wash, just as I think that 20-6 vs. 18-7 is a wash and Sabathia's K/BB vs. Beckett's WHIP is a wash.

    So the difference to me is in the innings pitched ... 4 more starts and 40 more innings is a major, major swing. If Beckett had made four more starts, at the CYA-caliber level he's pitched at, the Red Sox might have locked up home-field three weeks ago. And then he'd really be a lock for the award.
     
  11. zeke12

    zeke12 Guest

    As long as you remember your durability committment the next time Bert Blyleven and the HOF come up, I cede the point and my remaining time to the distinguished gentleman from California.
     
  12. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    Fifth in strikeouts, ninth in shutouts ... yeah, I'm on the Bert Bandwagon.
     
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