Adrian Beltre: Hall of Famer?

An accumulator is someone who was very good for a very long time. That's not an insult.

Beltre has been one of the five best third basemen in the majors for most of the past decade. You could argue he was the best for at least a couple of those seasons. I'm wary of numbers posted in the Ballpark in Arlington, but Beltre's glove is outstanding. He may not be as good a fielder as Brooks Robinson, but he's closer than Robinson was to Beltre as a hitter.

Also, Beltre is 34 years old and coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Counting him out at this point is silly. He isn't a lock yet, but if he can produce at this roughly level for another three or four seasons, he'll have about 450 home runs, 3,000 hits and 600 doubles. He'll also have about 85 wins above replacement, which would be way higher than anyone not in the Hall of Fame other than those banned from baseball, still not eligible or suspected of steroid use.

 

Never meant to be an insult. Nothing wrong with being an accumulator. I just have had difficulty to this point considering him a hall of famer. But, like you said, he's only 34, and there's nothing to say he won't hit those big milestones. But he's got to have a few more years like this last one to really get in the conversation for the hall. IMO.

 

Beltre will make it.

His offensive numbers are too good, especially for the position, regardless of era.
Plus he has the defensive reputation to enhance his offense, as oppose to the other way around which voters see, not to like.

Looking at WAR, if he retired today, there are only eight third baseman ahead of him (ARod is counted as a shortstop) All of them but Chipper are in the Hall, and I think we can all agree that he will be.

Only six have more homers (if he hits 15 next year he moves to fifth)
Only 10 have more RBI (If he gets 70 he moves to fifth)
Only seven have more hits.
Only six have more doubles (If he gets 25 he moves to fifth)

And the way that ballot seems to be about third baseman, he won't have much competition. In the next couple of years, the only candidate of any potential is Troy Glaus in 2017 -- that says how weak the next couple ballots at the position are.

Chipper should be a first-ballot guy in 2018. I assume that Scott Rolen won't play again and will also be eligible in 2018. It is same to assume that Beltre would be the next best candidate coming up since he would retire well before Wright and Longoria. He has two years guaranteed left on his contract (2016 is an option year), so there is very little to stand in his way for comparison on the ballot.

 

If people think Rolen has a chance, Beltre coasts in. And it seems he has 500 more hits in him.

 

Beltre has had dominant seasons, the best being 2004 with the Dodgers, though these days power spikes like that year tend to make some people look unfavorably upon a hitter.

 

I think he needs to get to 3,000 hits to get in. I think he can do it.

I don't ever remember him being linked to PEDs, but his monster season came out of nowhere and just happened to be in his contract year. He never came close to putting up those kind of power numbers again.

 

It's strange, because Beltre's best season kind of gets held against him, mostly because it got him a big contract, and then he followed it up with 19 home runs. Makes you wonder if there was something physically wrong with him in 2005.

Right now, he's kind of got Dwight Evans's career trajectory. For both of them, I think if their best seasons were in their 20s rather than their 30s, when public opinion had already coalesced about them, their support would be greater.

Anomalous home run seasons well predate the steroid era. Roger Maris, of course, had one. Jim Gentile. Rico Petricelli. Everybody in 1987. Davey Johnson had one big-time. Brady Anderson, of course.

 

He's cooled off, but he's had the kind of season that helps in the HOF chase. The black ink he gets for leading the AL in hits, a .315 BA, this is good. Another Gold Glove would really push him forward. He also appears to have become a bit more patient at the plate.

Beltre's a good bet to get to 3,000 hits; he's about 50-50 at this point. He could go south all at once (as Paul Konerko apparently has), but he's younger and a better player than Konerko was. It is remarkable how Beltre has gone from a "no way" to an odds-on fave for the HOF.

 

I would put him in over Rolen. I think even one more good season would put enough space between him and Rolen that it wouldn't be close unless all those Gold Gloves really make that big of a difference. At that position, it might...

 

Yes. He's the perfect third baseman. If he hadn't signed up to play in the Grand Canyon for five years, we wouldn't even be discussing this.

 

He's actually younger than I realized - I thought he was 36 - so that improves his odds. However, I think saying he gets to 3,000 hits in three seasons is being generous. I wouldn't expect him to swat 200 hits during his age 36 and 37 seasons. Assuming he's clean, he is bound to begin declining over the next three years, which will make the milestones difficult to reach unless he plays until he's in his 40s.

I'm not a big WAR guy, but as an easy shorthand, it earns him some more careful consideration, to be sure.

 

Scott Rolen was better than Beltre. But Beltre is four years younger and already has played 200 more games.

Had Rolen stayed healthy throughout his career, he'd have been a sure-fire Hall of Famer.