A worthy HOF debate??? Lance Berkman

1822 hits and 358 home runs?

No

He needs at least 2,500 hits and 500 home runs, and that is not happening.

 

I think 500 is the new 400 and I don't even think that guarantees you a spot these days...

 

Stargell posted his numbers during a more pitcher-friendly era, playing in the pitcher-friendly NL parks of the 60s and 70s (He only played the first few years of his career at Forbes Field). He was also the league MVP when his team won the WS. Berkman is a great player. But he doesn't have Stargell's profile (and he benefitted from Minute Maid Park all those years).

 

How hard is it to wait until people actually retire, or are close to retiring, so we can have an argument based on facts instead of conjecture?

 

But that is no fun.

 

What's the fun in that?

I think it's interesting to try to figure out how guys' careers will progress. Baseball Prospectus, if I remember correctly, projects pretty far into the future on its subscription player cards. GM's have to do it when they are making spending decisions, right?

 

I think any of these debates have to be "If he retired today... or If his career ended today..."

There are tons of players, who at some point in their careers, we thought they would be HOF locks and then it didn't work out that way...

 

There have been plenty of fun HOF arguments about guys who are retired. Those are usually the ones that get most heated. These ones usually just turn into half the people making possible projections and the other half saying yes or no based on what they've done so far, but no one really cares too strongly either way.

 

Nah. I think that it's interesting to think about where a guy's career is headed after this. Like I said, GM's have to do it, with millions of dollars at stake. I think the Hall of Fame anchors the discussion, but really what we're doing is talking about what a guy's remaining upside is.

 

We ran out of those guys, though.

 

No, we didn't.

But projections like this are impossible (with pitchers even moreso than position players.)

Hell, it's entirely possible Berkman's "legacy" could completely change by next Wednesday. And everything that's been said to this point would be moot.

 

It was a joke.