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A worthy HOF debate??? Lance Berkman

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Cubbiebum, Oct 18, 2011.

  1. Cubbiebum

    Cubbiebum Member

    This time last year I would have said he has very little chance of doing enough. What a difference a year makes.

    Prior to his 2010 season he seemed like he had a chance (maybe 50%) based on how he was playing. 2010 came, Berkman sucked for two teams, and it looked like he was declining fast and hard. Now with a stellar 2011 (31 HR's, .301 BA, .412 OBP, .959 OPS) he seems to be back on track.

    He is 35 so I still don't think he is more likely to finish with a good enough resume than he is to be in the Hall of Very Good. What he has going for him is a stellar OBP, slugging and this OPS. If he can have two more seasons around what he did this year (likely less HRs) and then hang on for 2-3 years in his upper-30s as an average starter he will likely climb into the top 40 in RBIs and top 50-70 in runs. Not great, obviously, but with his rate stats could it be enough?

    To me, I say no. He is extremely similar to Larry Walker to me. Ridiculously good rate stats (BA, OBP, OPS) but not enough of the counting stats. Berkman is very likely to finish with a good amount more HR's (25 behind Walker) and more RBIs and runs but will be worse in the rate stats. Walker also has the GG's and 1 MVP. The problem for Berkman is he doesn't have a stat to hang his hat on. He will be top 50 or so in doubles, home runs, RBIs and runs but he won't be top 20 in any of them.

    I would put his HOF chances at 10 percent. Curious if anyone else thinks he's got a decent shot.
  2. zagoshe

    zagoshe Well-Known Member

    I think all of the Cardinals would be shoo-ins if they got to face Shawn Marcum every game.
  3. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    Very good player, but he's no Larry Walker.

    Berkman needs at least three more seasons just like this year's, plus a good World Series in the national spotlight this week, to even have a borderline chance. In this era, his numbers simply don't stand out from the pack. Which says more about his era than it does him. But that's just reality.
  4. MankyJimy

    MankyJimy Active Member

    I'm going to say no.

    The quick explanation is he's not 'famous' enough to be in the Hall of Fame. Excellent hitter but like Moises Alou -for example- a kind of one-dimensional player (meaning all of his value is in his bat) that didn't rack up enough career value.

    I guess if he plays well another 5 years he could do it but how many players built a hall of fame case in their late 30s?
  5. joe

    joe Active Member

    I trust Buckdub in all things baseball. I'm interested in who he thinks wins the series — and why.
  6. buckweaver

    buckweaver Active Member

    America wins. Fuck yeah. (That, as you know, translates as "Texas" in this century.)

    Only way the Cardinals win is if they get real starting pitching.
  7. joe

    joe Active Member

    Oh, Buckdub, that's why I love you. But, you know, Texas has a whorehouse in it (lord have mercy on our souls).
  8. dooley_womack1

    dooley_womack1 Well-Known Member

    Whitman, you get off Cubbiebum's sign-on this instant!

    And joe, how long did that post take to type with one hand. :D
  9. joe

    joe Active Member

    Copy, paste. Pretty quick, I reckon. Less than 8 seconds, for sure.
  10. Gehrig

    Gehrig Active Member

    Berkman's career .724 OWP is clearly in HOF territory for a slugger, plus Berkman also has time to his credit as a center fielder. His .766 OWP in 2011 was one of his best years ever, and represents a real comeback for him, plus, he helped his team make the playoffs in a come from behind drive.

    Berkman's 2011 season indicates that he may have regained ability lost due to injuries. If he is willing to keep in condition, he may well finish strong to where he's close to 500 jacks and close to .300 lifetime. Through age 34, he is most similar to Willie Stargell, and that's how his career is shaping up. (Stargell hit for more average than he's recognized for.) If Berkman posts Stargell-esque numbers at the end of it all, his HOF chances will be very good, for he will have had the strong finish he will need to overcome his mid-career malaise.

    Through age 35

    PLAYER..................R.....H....2B...3B..HR..RB I...SB..CS..BB....SO..AVG..OBP..SLG..OPS.OPS+..TB. ..WAR

    George Kelly........796 1729 328 75 144 998 65 43 364 667 .299 .343 .456 .799 110 2639 24.8
    Jim Bottomley....1094 2125 419 140 206 1315 57 15 602 521 .312 .371 .505 .876 127 3442 33.6
    Tony Perez..........959 1948 345 60 296 1206 43 29 676 1349 .283 .347 .479 .826 129 3301 45.3
    Orlando Cepeda 1128 2328 412 27 378 1347 141 80 579 1153 .298 .351 .502 .853 134 3928 47.5
    Frank Chance......795 1269 200 79 20 590 402 ? 548 318 .297 .394 .395 .789 136 1687 49.4
    Bill Terry............993 1919 331 99 146 975 49 ? 477 375 .342 .395 .515 .910 138 2886 50.1
    George Sisler....1163 2474 370 149 97 1029 362 127 416 295 .343 .383 .476 .859 130 3433 51.5
    Lance Berkman 1107 1822 405 28 358 1193 84 48 1149 1229 .296 .409 .545 .954 146 3357 51.1
  11. Mizzougrad96

    Mizzougrad96 Active Member

    I was covering baseball during Walker's prime and I'm stunned that his numbers are as unimpressive as they are. I think his MVP season was the only one where he had more than 40 HR. I know he was injured a lot, which was a shame, because he was one of the most versatile players in the game for what seemed like 5-6 years. One of the smartest baserunners I've ever seen.

    I think you can actually make a better argument for Berkman, but I don't think either he or Walker stand much of a chance.
  12. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    This is not an argument.
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