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A sports gambling theory

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Dick Whitman, Dec 8, 2015.

  1. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    Through Week 2:

    Bet: $1100
    Cash on Hand: $1,405

    Favorites ATS: 5-5-1

    With the caveats about small sample sizes firmly in place, if this were to extrapolate on a large scale, they are setting efficient point spreads, as we know they do, while underestimating the underdog in some games on the money line.
     
  2. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    OK, I have to work the second half of the day, but so far this NFL season:

    Bet: $1,200
    Cash on Hand: $1,655

    Favorites ATS: 5-6-1

    I bet when the money line underestimates the underdog by 3 percent or more from the point spread, ex. the point spread says the underdog has a 43 percent chance to win, but the moneyline says you only have to win 40 percent of the time or more to make a profit at that line.
     
  3. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    I need some clarification. I'm fine with most of my moneyline numbers, but some of them are, to my eyes, ridiculous. Suppose an NBA moneyline pair is -9000/4500. Does that mean if you bet on the favorite you have to wager $4500 to get a chance at $100?
     
  4. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    What game is that??
     
  5. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    No moneyline value in the NBA tonight.

    Bet the Vikings in the NFL game, though (moneyline).
     
  6. trifectarich

    trifectarich Well-Known Member

    Betting the favorite, you'd wager $9,000 to get back $9,100 (a profit of $100). Betting the underdog, you'd wager $100 to get $4,600 (a profit of $4,500).

    And, just to be sure we're all on the same page, those are money line wagers. In other words, we're just talking about winning the game; forget the point spread entirely. You often see lines like this in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, where Duke or NC is playing close to home against a cupcake that got into the tournament with a record of 11-20.
     
  7. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    That can't be right. Where in the world is there an NBA game that lets you wager $100 to win $4,500? I'd bet on the Sixers every night if that was the case.
     
  8. TheSportsPredictor

    TheSportsPredictor Well-Known Member

    $1,000 to win $4600.
     
  9. doctorquant

    doctorquant Well-Known Member

    Where I am seeing such MLs is when there's a huge expected point spread. One of the games in my database, the moneyline is -13,000/4,000, with a closing spread of 21. By my reading of NBA wagering, any spread that's upwards of 13 or so implies a near-certain favorite's win. So maybe it is the case that, in order to win $100 on the favorite in that instance, you had to be willing to put $13,000 down.

    Before I do any other analyses, however, I need to get this nailed down.
     
  10. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Nobody is posting 40-1 odds on a team winning a game.

    40-1 is a long shot futures pick to win the Super Bowl.

    TSP's $1,000 baseline makes sense, though one thing I have never done is bet the NBA.
     
  11. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    I have never seen the moneyline switch to a 1000 scale. Only based on $100 bets. But what do I know?
     
  12. JackReacher

    JackReacher Well-Known Member

    Yeah. Even a Golden State-Philly game would be, what, Golden State -700? If that? I don't bet NBA moneylines enough to know for sure.

    Brooklyn is a -300 favorite tonight against Philly. OKC is -350 vs. Atlanta tonight.
     
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