A sports gambling theory

There's a name for that system. Can't remember it. It's why there are Roulette limits.

 

It's the martingale and I would never do it when gambling on casino games. In a previous life, I worked in a casino as a dealer. I've seen roulette fall on black 16 straight times or a blackjack dealer win 13 hands in a row.

Yet college football spreads are different in that the previous game or performance has a direct effect on the odds/spread for the next event. Because of overreaction, lines often don't reflect the true matchup.

 

I've looked into things like what the longest NBA losing streaks are ATS, for this very purpose.

 

The Cavs are currently on a pretty bad stretch ATS. I've found Twitter to be a great resource for ATS trends and such. Lots of good accounts to follow.

 

If you are talking about a parlay, Vegas books won't let you parlay the over to the big favorite (or vice versa).

 

Interesting, I didn't know that. My guy and a site I use both allow it. Never had an issue. I've never been Vegas, either, which is a goddamn shame.

I was thinking more specifically of two straight bets or an action-reverse, but I would have included parlays under the umbrella of exotic bets. Intuitively, it just seems to makes sense to pair them up. I'd be interested in the data.

 

Say what now? You can't parlay the favorite and the over? Pretty sure I've done that a million times, at least online. Not in Vegas. But that sounds strange.

 

I have a specific example - I was in vegas on 9/26/15. I am looking at my texts, my brother wanted UMass +28 against Notre Dame and the under. Ticket taker said they don't do a 2 team parlay that big of a spread. The bet was a loser, ND killed them and it went way over.

They do it for smaller spreads. I don't know what the cutoff is.

Edit: Just for information sake, this was at the Aria, an MGM property. So MGM doesn't do it.

 

Gotcha. I do see a "single bet only" notification on some Bovada lines. Probably has something to do with what you're talking about.

 

Gotcha, that makes sense. Thinking in NFL terms, you don't usually see spreaders higher than 14, so I haven't run into that problem (I rarely bet college football. Don't know it well enough.).

 

In vegas, they won't let you parlay a first quarter score to a first quarter over/under either.

 

I think for college basketball it is -15 and for college football it is between -23 and -28.