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A possible solution to the "Eight Belles" problem in horse racing

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by 93Devil, May 5, 2008.

  1. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member


    Love this stuff.

    Storm Cat was sired by Storm Bird, who was sired by Northern Dancer.

    Northern Dancer's dam was Natalma.

    Native Dancer sired Natalma.

    But there's NO other Native Dancer influence in the five-generation pedigree, and the only inbreeding in that five-gen ped was Nearco, who was Northern Dancer's grandsire and
    the great-great-great-grandsire of Storm Cat's dam, Terlingua.

    That's not a lot of inbreeding for a modern pedigree.

    Go back 200-plus years, when only three foundation stallions founded the entire modern thoroughbred line. There was a damn sight more inbreeding, then, then there is, now.
     
  2. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member

    Now, there's a measure of inbreeding in the mating which produced Eight Belles.

    Mr. Prospector was the sire of the dam which produced Eight Belles. Mr. Prospector is also Eight Belles' great-great-grandsire (4 generations back).

    Raise A Native sired Mr. Prospector, so that's another duplicate name in the 5-generation pedigree -- and Native Dancer sired Raise A Native, who was undefeated in four starts and is a more consistent presence in modern Derby-winning pedigrees than virtually another other male thoroughbred influence. Raise A Native was also the grandsire
    of Belonging, who was the sire of the granddam of Away (Eight Belles' dam)

    Native Dancer appears yet again in Eight Belles' pedigree, as the sire of Natalma, who produced Northern Dancer, who was
    the grandsire of Away.

    So, Eight Belles is inbred to Native Dancer, but Native Dancer himself is five or six generations removed from Eight Belles.

    Whew.
     
  3. fishwrapper

    fishwrapper Active Member

    A bit of a sidebar, but absolutely required reading.
    John Eisenberg's "Native Dancer: The Grey Ghost: Hero of a Golden Age."


    [​IMG]
     
  4. fishwrapper

    fishwrapper Active Member

    Truth is, this is common in equine lines. Even in wild packs.
     
  5. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member


    Sure is. It's common, throughout the breed. When Giacomo won the Derby in '05, he was a complete outcross within the first five generations (ZERO duplication of names), but that's damn rare, in a classic winner. What's more there wasn't a TRACE of Northern Dancer/Native Dancer.

    '86 Derby winner Ferdinand was a complete outcross in his first FOUR generations.
     
  6. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member


    The associated great story was Al Vanderbilt's, his owner, who got to enjoy one of the twentieth century's great lives.
     
  7. fishwrapper

    fishwrapper Active Member

    Except Alex was a Triple Crown winner that year, had Dancer all through him.
    That stumble out of the gate cost the sport a superstar.

    Watch that Prospector/Alex line.
     
  8. trifectarich

    trifectarich Well-Known Member

    Night Owl: The question of doing all U.S. racing on grass is answered by one word -- money. You couldn't have a race meet lasting more than a week and a half because there wouldn't be any grass left. Tracks, naturally, want to offer 10 or 12 races a day; assuming (often incorrectly) that means more money pushed through the betting windows.

    Randy Moss also supported the idea of not allowing jockeys to use whips. That makes sense to me.
     
  9. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member


    Not to mention the inclement-weather factor, which looms large.

    Also: The stick is a safety device as well, boys. If a horse starts to bear in/out markedly and suddenly, judicious use of the whip will usually straighten things out.
    You don't see much abusive use of whips, these days . . . sometimes, by kids who don't know any better, yet, or jocks carried away in the heat of a particular moment, but whip abuse is NOT at all widespread/prevalent.
     
  10. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Arguing for Triple Crown races to be run by 4-year-olds is wasting your breath. Ditto spacing out the now-five weeks it takes to run all three TC races. That's adjusting the fabric of the TC chase, which is going to be a very, very hard sell to the career horsemen.

    Imagine making all those changes and then the Triple Crown is won three times in four years or something otherwise unseen before. Would the same writers and talking heads banging for change today say after the third TC winner that the title is becoming cheap and easy or that we're in some new golden era of racing? Sorry, I'm voting the former.

    Also not saying there shouldn't changes, I enjoy the sport and never want to see what I saw Saturday. I'd start with the drugs, then maybe look at the racing surfaces.
     
  11. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member


    There's other means. Overaggressive shoeing would be a good first stop.
     
  12. GB-Hack

    GB-Hack Active Member

    That's the other difference between the U.S. and the U.K. Most tracks will run only 6 or 7 races on an afternoon, and have races one week and a couple of weeks off before resuming.
     
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