40 years ago today...

Or you may be spot on. Kennedy's win in California was a big rebound from his loss in Oregon the week before. If everything had played out, there might have been a Kennedy-McCarthy ticket arranged in (or before) Chicago that would have knocked Humphrey out of the box.

 

You better go correct Wikipedia.

 

White voter. Over 35.. Votes Obama

 

At some point, discussion has to factor in. we can't just bomb the shit out of everyone. if you haven't been paying attention, that's not working out so well for us

 

Heard the same rationale for why Kerry would do better than poll numbers indicated.

He did worse.

These inspired, energetic, motivated young voters always seem to find something else to do on election day besides actually vote.

 

From Wikipedia:

At the time of his death, Kennedy was significantly behind Vice President Hubert Humphrey in convention delegate support, but this has not deterred many from the belief that Kennedy would have ultimately secured the nomination following his victory in the California primary. Historians such as Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr. have argued that Kennedy's broad appeal and charisma would have been sufficiently convincing at the Democratic Convention to give him the nomination.

Only thirteen states held primaries that year, meaning that most delegates at the Democratic convention could choose a candidate based on their personal preference. Historian Michael Beschloss thus believes it unlikely that Kennedy could have secured the nomination, given that the convention selected Hubert Humphrey as the candidate even though Humphrey had not participated in any of the primary contests. Humphrey ultimately went on to lose the general election to Republican Richard Nixon.

 

That's one. Impressive. But the majority of you don't seem to agree -- at least, that's what the primary results and the polls say.

 

There's quite a few of us white people under 35 who are voting for Obama, you know. I think that cuts across race, but I could be wrong ...

 

The point is, Obama's base of support is not anywhere near as broad as goalmouth was trying to make it seem. In fact, his base is actually quite narrow -- young voters, black voters, highly educated voters. Among white voters (in general), older voters, less educated voters, Hispanic voters, women, he hasn't done so well.

Cetainly, none of this is to say he can't win. The numbers simply indicate his support does not transcend demographics. He has to win some of that support from areas other than his base in the coming months to do that. But to say his support cuts across race and class is to ignore the facts.

 

He's also had a strong opponent who had an entrenched base of support in the fight for the nomination. It's not like he was facing a no-name senator from New York state.

 

And he won't be facing a no-name in the fall, either. He has a strong opponent with an entrenched base of support. As I said, he has quite a bit of work to do.

 

Agreed, he has plenty of work to do, but people also aren't voting for McCain because his wife was a great president. I don't care where your ideology lies, for someone to not acknowledge that a good chunk (not all) of Hillary's base came from fans of her husband, they would have to be significantly ignorant.