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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Driftwood, Apr 8, 2021 at 11:19 AM.

  1. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    Hurricane forecast: Another above-normal season; 17 named storms

    After the most ferocious hurricane season on record in 2020, top hurricane forecasters on Thursday said we should expect another active, above-normal season again this year.
    For the season, which begins June 1, meteorologist Phil Klotzbach and other experts from Colorado State University – among the nation's top seasonal hurricane forecasters – predict 17 named tropical storms will form, eight of which will become hurricanes.
    An average season has 12 tropical storms, six of which are hurricanes. In 2020, there were a whopping 30 named storms, 13 of which were hurricanes.
    If the prediction holds true, it will be the sixth consecutive above-normal season.
    Of the eight predicted hurricanes, four are expected to spin into major hurricanes – Category 3, 4 or 5 – with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. The group said there's a 69% chance for at least one major hurricane to make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline.
  2. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    I always wondered how Colorado State became the go-to school for hurricane research. Did they decide these things were so terrifying that they wanted to be as far away as possible? And if so, why isn’t there an avalanche studies center at Florida International?
    Batman and Driftwood like this.
  3. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    I'm right there with you. You'd think it would be Miami or East Carolina or someplace.

    When I was in the Navy, they asked if I wanted to be stationed in Colorado. I said, "Uhhhh, I didn't join the Navy to be stationed underground in the Rockies."
    maumann likes this.
  4. dixiehack

    dixiehack Well-Known Member

    By contrast the National Storm Prediction Center (the tornado forecast people) is at the University of Oklahoma. Talk about having a front row seat for the parade.
  5. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    How about the U.S. Geological Survey, which tracks and measures earthquakes, is in Golden, Colorado.
    maumann likes this.
  6. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    But it started with a professor of atmospheric science at CSU and they've continued the forecasting.

    Pioneering hurricane forecaster William Gray dies at 86
  7. maumann

    maumann Well-Known Member

    If it was located in Gainesville, all hurricanes would be rated on the Joules to Rain Total (JORT) scale.
  8. Mngwa

    Mngwa Well-Known Member

    It started with Gray. And his predictions are always funny because in the middle of the summer he would redo them just in case what he had originally forecast was wildly off.
  9. tapintoamerica

    tapintoamerica Well-Known Member

    Excellent question. I wondered the same thing. Especially for what I presume is a land-grant institution with a mission to serve the state.
  10. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    Number of named storms this century: 15, 15, 12, 16, 15, 28, 10, 15, 16, 9, 19, 19, 19, 14, 8, 11, 15, 17, 15, 18, 30.
    Average per season: 16

    That's why they keep predicting "above-average" seasons every year. Because their baseline of average is from the 1990s, when the number was 11.

    1983 was a real snoozer --- four storms. But thanks to Alicia, there was $3 billion in damage. The next year saw 13 storms . . . but only $229 million in damage.

    1992, of course, saw only seven storms. But thanks to Andrew . . . $27.3 billion in damage.
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2021 at 3:06 PM
  11. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    If they are headed toward Onslow Bay, one is too many.
  12. Spartan Squad

    Spartan Squad Well-Known Member

    Gee, I wonder if the average is set by more numbers than the last 20 years.... Hmm
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