2019 Running Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread

Two minor disturbances behind Humberto today, one already close to landfall in the Gulf, the other quite a ways out in the Atlantic:

 

That one in the Atlantic looks like it already has boarding passes for the Greenland Express.

 

The five-day outlook shows an 80 percent chance of 97L forming into a tropical depression. Here's what the long-term models are forecasting -- 2MCM is spot on.

 

Keep that sucker out in the ocean.
The disturbance in the Gulf doesn't seem like it's going to amount to much.

 

There's a cold front spinning around a low in the upper Midwest that should steer everything away in the short term. Keep seeing long-range winter forecasts calling for a lot of Alberta Clippers. If the jet stream settles in where it swoops down over the southeast, any tropical formation should stay south or die in the Atlantic. Depends on how quickly that pattern sets up, of course.

 

We've had record temps in the mid 90s here all last week, and it's supposed to be more of the same today and Tuesday. Bring on Canadian air.

 

Humberto is officially a hurricane but a Cat 1 in the middle of the ocean, so we'll consign him to the record books. That's the third of the season.

 

Same here. Wednesday's supposed to be 10 degrees cooler than today, then a gradual warming again. But by now, we usually have shifted into cooler, drier nights. We're still in hot and humid mid summer.

 

Hello, Tropical Depression Ten. Again, it all depends on when the thing makes a hard right. The long-range forecast has it skirting the eastern Bahamas, then picking up power and speed -- just like Humberto.

 

Grand Bahama is just not having a good year.
Pretty much all the lines in the spaghetti models at least have it staying clear of the Bahamas and hanging a hard right in the neighborhood of PR and the DR.

 

Wow. At least on my screen, the URLs I grabbed are updating every day with the newest images instead of a static screen grab. It's now Jerry. I had no idea they would do that.

And whatever spaghetti model that thinks this storm is tracking through Palm Beach and hitting the Gulf must be voting for Trump in 2020.

 

I ain’t even buying bottled water for this one.