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2017 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Della9250, Oct 3, 2016.

  1. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Yeah, I just meant broad categories. ... leadoff hitters / outfielders / fast players. Ichiro and Henderson were obviously different players. It's just a broad category I had in mind. For a more direct comparison I could have said Lou Brock. I just wanted to keep it to recent players that in my opinion were Hall of Famers. And I was trying to distinguish from the more typical power hitting outfielder.

    I do think Ichiro is a no-brainer Hall of Famer, and that he was a much better player than Kenny Lofton. For me, that isn't even a conversation. I also don't think Rickey Henderson was that much better than Ichiro, if he was better at all. They have different attributes, so it's really a half a dozen of this thing. I watched way too many games of Henderson loafing after fly balls and not running hard on balls that he could have beaten out -- it just knocks him down a peg for me, because it was the norm a lot of the time with Henderson.
     
  2. amraeder

    amraeder Well-Known Member

    Just since it touches on the people mentioned:
    BR Similarity Score:
    #2 for Lofton? Raines
    #2 for Ichiro? Lofton
     
  3. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    Say what?

    Henderson's career OBP is 50 points higher and his career OPS is 60 points higher, and he had about 200 more HRs and 900 more SBs.

    Ichiro's best single-season OPS was .851. Henderson exceeded that 10 times and went over 1.000 twice.

    They aren't close.
     
    sgreenwell and JC like this.
  4. Steak Snabler

    Steak Snabler Well-Known Member

    Yeah, but Ichiro hit a bunch of homers in BP ... [/bluefont]

    Henderson's most similar batter (career-wise) is Craig Biggio at 713, which means there was really no one like Rickey in baseball history.

    That might be the widest similarity score margin of any Hall of Famer.

    Even Babe Ruth had Barry Bonds at 740 and Ted Williams at 731.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2017
  5. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I think they were closer in terms of talent than you are saying. Henderson played 25 MLB seasons. Ichiro 16. It's a huge difference when you are looking at the compiled statistical lines. But yeah, of course. ... Henderson hit for more power (although it really isn't what makes Henderson a Hall of Famer), and yes, he stole a boatload of bases (in part because some of the teams, and the managers he was playing for allowed him to run whenever he wanted -- something that you saw in 1982 that you didn't see by the 1990s; that is not taking anything away from Henderson, who was the greatest base stealer of all time). And yes, he was great at getting on base -- drawing walks.

    But if you want to cherry pick stats to make a case, well, Henderson never had a 200 hit season -- he was never even close to 200 hits. Ichiro did it 10 seasons in a row, and had 262 hits one season. Ichiro, despite coming to MLB when he was 27, got to the 3,000 hit milestone -- which is remarkable, and he had as many hits as Henderson even though he played only 2/3 as many seasons as Henderson. Ichiro was just a better contact hitter, and he was also a much better, and more consistent fielder.

    I am not quite looking at them that way, though -- trying to find some statistic that fits an argument. They are both Hall of Famers in my book. I don't think you can do a straight comparison in any sort of apples to apples way, because 1) They played in slightly different eras (and the game changed a bit between the 1980s and 1990s when they both were in their primes), 2) they played under different circumstances (Ichiro could never have run the way Henderson was allowed to, even if he wanted to -- even if Henderson was the greatest base stealer of all time).

    I just think they are both Hall of Famers. For different reasons. The one major negative I see with Henderson was what I pointed out -- he sometimes seemed to play like he didn't give a shit. I always found it too bad, because he was such a great player when he wanted to be.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2017
  6. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    They are both Hall of Famers for sure.

    But Ichiro's peak is average Rickey.
     
  7. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Guess that is a legit opinion, if you believe it. I just think Ichiro was a ridiculously good hitter -- as in putting the bat on the ball for base hits. He was in a class that Henderson just wasn't in my opinion. To say that Ichiro's peak was average for Henderson -- Ichiro excelled at a few things in a way that was well beyond Henderson's ability. Ichiro batted .350 or above 4 times, and had 10 200 hit seasons in a row. Henderson was never anywhere near that kind of contact hitter (just watching him, or "numbers" wise). At times, Henderson was actually too much of free swinger who missed a lot -- I thought he got more disciplined as his career went on, though. Ichiro was also a much better fielder -- he was actually a great fielder. Henderson was loafing around in the field a lot of the time -- at least during his years with the Yankees when I was watching a lot of him.

    For his part, Henderson was obviously in a class as a base stealer that nobody else has been in -- Ichiro included (even though Ichiro could steal a base). Henderson was a master at drawing walks. And he had a knack for scoring runs -- he'd get on base any way he could, advance on a stolen base or by taking an extra base on a hit, and then be in good position to score.

    I kind of go through a mental list like that, and yeah, we agree -- both Hall of Famers. It's not ridiculous to me for someone to think that Henderson was more of an all-time great. But to say that Ichiro's best was average for Henderson isn't something I really agree with -- not when Ichiro was flat out superior to Henderson at least a few things. Ichiro hit .372 with 262 hits one season. Henderson wasn't capable of that kind of thing, even if there was a way to normalize for the decade of difference between them.
     
  8. JC

    JC Well-Known Member

    Both hall of famers and Ichiro is not close to Henderson.
     
  9. outofplace

    outofplace Well-Known Member

    Ragu, you are doing some odd cherry picking of stats to try to justify an argument that just doesn't hold up, perhaps because you didn't like the way Henderson would loaf during games. Suzuki isn't even close to Henderson.

    I certainly don't argue the point regarding defense, but as a hitter, Henderson's edge was massive. He didn't just pile up more home runs and steals because he played longer. That is why I posted the 162-game averages earlier, not the home run or stolen base totals. Suzuki was slightly more efficient, but that makes some sense given that he didn't run nearly as often. As I mentioned earlier, Suzuki's career high in stolen bases was 56. Henderson met or exceeded that total 12 times. Suzuki couldn't come close to matching Henderson's power or his speed.

    You also claimed that power wasn't what got Henderson into the Hall of Fame. Sure, he would have been in on his other skills, but providing solid power along with those leadoff skills is one of the things that made him so special.

    Sure, Suzuki hit for a much higher average, but he didn't walk. Henderson averaged 115 walks every 162 games. Suzuki's average is 41. His career high was 68 and he only managed 50 in a season one other time. In spite of Suzuki's significant advantage in career batting average, his career on-base percentage of .356 is far, far below Henderson's .401.

    Henderson's job was to get on base, steal and score runs and he did those things as well or better than anybody in MLB history.
     
  10. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    Dunno, when someone tells me that Ichiro at his peak was average for Henderson, and I disagree and then point out some of what Ichiro did that Henderson couldn't and didn't do. ... I don't really think about it as "odd cherry picking" or really saying anything beyond a few factual things about Ichiro that I think made that a bit of unjustified hyperbole.

    What argument am I making that doesn't hold up? I said that in MY opinion there wasn't as big a gap between Rickey Henderson and Ichiro as players to justify a "not even close" assessment. You don't agree, I guess. All I did was give my reasons for my opinion -- things that Ichiro did as a hitter and fielder that were getting lost in only pointing how great Henderson was.
     
  11. LongTimeListener

    LongTimeListener Well-Known Member

    I was a little off earlier. Ichiro's best season of OPS was .869 and his second-best was .851.

    Rickey bettered the first number six times and the second number eight times. An average season from Rickey was right around the .850 to .860 range. He also stole a lot more bases and hit a lot more home runs. If you go by OPS+ (which I know you don't like, but a lot of people do), Ichiro's best season was 130, which fits in as the exact median season for Rickey.

    And for Ichiro we are talking about that one season. The rest are well back in the pack of sub-.840 OPS, sub-.400 OBP. So yeah, peak Ichiro = average Rickey.
     
  12. Songbird

    Songbird Well-Known Member

    162-game average, huh?

    Henderson: 241 total bases
    Ichiro: 254 bases

    Henderson 161 hits -- 115 singles
    Ichiro 196 hits -- 160 singes

    So one guy walked better than the other while one guy singled better than the other.

    What's the difference if it's a walk or single?

    Henderson 162-averaged 31 more runs than Ichiro.
     
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