2016 MLB awards thread

Also, Dick: Although his strikeout numbers aren't high, his SO/W ratio -- I'd argue the more important number of the two -- leads the league.

 

But Kluber was 0.6 ahead of Hernandez in WAR, with a lot more strikeouts. I also recall that he had a very dominant last couple months. Wins probably help the optics a little, at least subconsciously, but it's been a while since it clearly seemed to be a difference-maker for the voters.

 

Verlander had to go through that transition phase from high 90s on demand and big hook to setting guys up for weak contact (and he can still bring respectable heat when he wants to). It took a while (and he wasn't healthy to start 2015), but he's on the other side (you could make an argument he was there late last season, but the Tigers had largely given up on the year by that point and were notorious for not hitting during his starts). I don't think he'll win the Cy Young (Fulmer as ROY will be just fine), but he's regained ace status, which is comforting.

 

I'd say Scherzer in 2013 was a clear case of wins ruling over everything. He started the year 13-0 and was all the buzz, but his ERA at that point was 3.09. He got to 19-1 and basically had the Cy in his pocket. He ended up with 28 of 30 votes. But if you go back and look at the numbers, there were a few guys who arguably had better seasons (including his teammate Sanchez, whose ERA was 0.33 lower and whose ERA+ was 18 points higher).

 

Just for kicks (and because I have NOTHING to do at work today), here are Scherzer's numbers and Yu Darvish's that year:

SCHERZER
W-L 21-3
ERA 2.90
IP 214.1
SO 240
ERA+ 144
FIP 2.74

DARVISH
W-L 13-9
ERA 2.83
IP 209.2
SO 277
ERA+ 145
FIP 3.28

If Scherzer had been 18-5 and Darvish 17-6, don't you think that might have turned out differently? And Scherzer had three wins in the first month where he allowed four or five runs, plus a couple of five-run no-decisions later in the year. Darvish, meanwhile, took four losses and five NDs when allowing two runs or less.

All of which is a long way of saying, I don't think wins are gone as a category the way you believe.

 

Look at the FIPs.

 

I am way too lazy to look it up, but while Porcello has pitched very well, by my memory he has been in a significant number of games where he got six-plus run support.

 

Yeah. I don't think Scherzer was an outlandish vote or anything.

But I also don't think superior FIP had much to do with why he won. It was the wins, especially the streak to start the season.

 

BTW ...

This would be a remarkable story of an unknown overcoming the deck stacked against him by nobody paying any attention to him.

 

So Kyle Hendricks looking OK tonight so far.

 

Yeah, one prediction in this post is not looking very good right now. I'm as surprised as anybody by the way Hendricks has pitched this season, but at some point you have to start thinking the way he is pitching is legitimate. That home run he just gave up certainly shows that his margin for error may be slim, but he has done a hell of a job avoiding those errors all season.

 

I don't think you're totally off, but I think rather than just a straight count of wins, it has a lot to do with #narrative, like the AP Preseason Top 25. In Scherzer's case, he was rolling so well through the first half of the season (I believe his first loss was the weekend before the All-Star Break) that he kind of held the 'best pitcher of the year' narrative so long that many voters couldn't be otherwise swayed.