2010 World Series of Poker running thread

If you're in a satellite situation where 30 participants advance. Say 31 players remain and you have the second-most chips, say, in the BB. The SB, the chip leader, shoves. You HAVE to fold. No other way to look at it. I know this is a very narrow and unlikely scenario, but to say you NEVER fold AA pre-flop is foolish. Of course there are times to fold it.

As for normal tournament structures, I think it's OK for a one-time WSOP player, near the money, to avoid busting by folding AA.

But, yes, more often than not, folding AA preflop is a bad idea.

 

Not even then. Because even though you'd be less than 50-50 to win the pot, you'd multiply your stack by six if you won, and you'd win more often than once in six times. Even if you win one in three times and multiply by six when you do, that's a no-brainer.

As for that WSOP bubble, I can't imagine a much more agonizing spot in poker. Regardless of what hands you get, you are going to be playing so tight because of that bubble fear that it's just ridiculous. I gotta think that having a big stack on the bubble is just heaven, like a license to take everyone's chips for an hour or two.

 

That's a nice blog, CI. Interesting reads, so much so that I wish you'd of written more on some of the topics, like Phil Gordon.

I somehow got the poker name "Light Bore." Not sure what that means, but not impressed.

 

Thanks, scribe. I really enjoy writing it; glad you enjoy reading it.

 

One of the big mistakes players often make is over-valueing Aces versus multiple hands when they figure out odds.

Against nine random hands, Aces are only 17 percent to win.

And further, when you consider the kinds of hands that are likely to produce some sort of multi-way all-in fest in front of you - it is a good bet that at least one of the hands if not more is something like A-K or A-Q, which weakens your aces because it lessens the likelihood that you will improve them from just being top pair.

So there are times in tournaments it makes sense the correct play is to fold them in order to improve your position and thus your payout.

If you play for bracelets and glory it is one thing I suppose but I play for cash when I play tournaments and that means not falling in love with certain hands in certain situations.

 

If you go to the serious poker forums where they do the math on these things, they'll show you how what you are talking about is almost never correct, Zag.

17% chance to 9x your stack is worth the risk. You need a big stack to go deep, and you need to go deep to win money consistently at multi-table poker tournaments.

If you are playing tournaments to make money, you need to be going deep and taking them down. Merely floating along to the cash will never be profitable in the long run. You won't hit the small cashes often enough to make up for the many times you get cold-decked or unlucky or whatever.

Find virtually any player who has a long history of winning money at multi-table tournaments, and you'll find they are almost exclusively guys who are looking to win big pots and push around guys who are scared to get it all-in and trying to save their stacks for small cashes.

 

No offense intended, Bird, but it doesn't sound complimentary .... since bluffing is often referred to as "firing a bullet," (with a third bluff on the river being called the "third bullet"), I'm guessing that players facing a "Light Bore" gun are not particularly intimidated by that weapon's bullets.

Of course, if you're a good enough player, they might just not be intimidated because they don't know how often you're taking their chips!

 

what he said.

Besides, the 9-way allin example is ridiculous because it would never happen. Three way is rare.

In fact I just busted out of an online tourney when I was deep when I had AA vs AK vs 10-10. I was a 70 pct favorite to triple my stack.

 

I thought virtually the exact same thing, BigP. It wasn't complimentary.

 

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/pro-chat-transcript/Jennifer+Harman/1164485308

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/pro-chat-transcript/Phil+Ivey/1187464424

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/pro-chat-transcript/Chris+Ferguson/1171839756

 

Ok, from Phil Hellmuth (and Annie Duke) - who, I would say knows a thing or two about playing tournaments.....

http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer-magazines/65557-18-5/articles/14576-when-to-fold-aces-preflop

By the way, poker star Annie Duke tells me that she has folded pocket aces before the flop on at least one occasion. Of course, there are situations in which this would be the correct play. For example, in a supersatellite when you have, say, 30 percent of the chips, eight players win seats, there are nine players remaining, and a player with more chips than you moves all in, it would be correct to fold pocket aces.

Why risk getting eliminated when you're only a 4.5-to-1 or less favorite? Why not simply fold and wait for someone else to go broke? After all, the eight players all get paid the same in a supersatellite. It is a very rare case indeed that it would actually be correct to fold pocket aces before the flop, but it just goes to show you, never say never in poker

 

I've cashed in 12 of the last 16 tournaments I've played including five final tables, two second places and a win. The time I won -- you want to know how many times all of my chips were at risk before the river? ZERO.

I've been more than profitable playing tournaments so spare me the lecture.

You can play aggressively and smart at the same time in the same tournament - you can switch gears. You have to pick your spots. And one or two spots away from cashing is a good time to play a little more conservatively, if only for a few hands.

That's especially true since nobody said anything about playing nut tight or looking for small cashes - well except for you.

But if I have a chance to cash, I cash.

I never once said to play weak or nut tight nor did I say there would be a "nine-way all-in".

I said play smart and understand your odds and understand that A-A is not that big of a favorite with more people in the hand.