2010 World Series of Poker running thread

You couldn't have said it better.

I've already "favorited" it and will be visiting damn-near daily as we get deeper into the WSOP. I wish I had started something like that at my old paper.

 

A great poker debate was revived during my monthly home game......

"Is it ever proper to fold A-A pre-flop"

My answer is -- not in a cash game ever but there are some situations in a tournament where yes, it is proper.

My friend said to me "I know you, you could never fold Aces" to which I answered, "not only could I, I already have"

So I throw it out to the poker players amongst us - could you ever fold Aces preflop?

 

one scenario in which it is correct: on bubble of satellite tournament in which you have a huge amount of chips. IE, a tournament where top 100 finishers get a seat to the WSOP main event. 101 players left, you're #1 in chips, and the #2 player, with almost equal chips, goes all in. Oversimplified it a bit, but a satellite tournament is the only time.

 

How am I running? Am I catching cards or not? Because, let's face it, your perceived luck during that session would influence that decision.

 

If you're trying to win, you don't fold it. If you're trying not to lose, then do wtf you want. Personally, I don't fold preflop when I'm at least 80% to win.

Herm Edwards is appaled. ;D

 

In a cash game, never ever ever. In a tournament, the payouts have to be really skewed and your incentives have to be very unique. Basically no reward for finishing first (like the situation above).

 

Fold AA preflop?

Cash game: never.
Standard tournament: never.
Satellite tournament: possibly, on the bubble.

(That said, it would be awfully tempting to fold if you were at the Main Event of the WSOP and had a short stack on the bubble, where you knew folding could guarantee you $20K, but doubling up might still help you last only a little longer and get you $22K, but busting would be $0. It would be absolutely, 100-percent wrong to fold, even in that situation, but it would be tempting.)

 

Never in a cash game. In a tournament, it's fine in select situations. If there's six players in the pot committed, your odds aren't that great to actually win so it wouldn't be smart to throw your whole stack in there.

 

Phil Ivey picks up bracelet #8 last night. Won the $3,000 HORSE tournament at a final table that featured bracelet winners Bill Chen, John Juanda, Ken Aldridge and Jeff Lisandro. Chad Brown was also at the FT. 9 or 10 handed, I believe Ivey was the short stack.

 

Even in bubble situations, you have to work pretty hard to contrive a situation where folding AA pre-flop is a positive EV decision.

 

To me it's easy. You're small or big blind, oh hell, just in front of other players. One player goes all in, and a player calls. Knowing that if the smaller stack loses, you're off the bubble and in to the next round, why risk it. You gotta figure one or both have a pair, and while you're is better, all it takes is one on the board to trip up... why risk your stack at that point?

 

Because if you track through the math of the payout structure and your odds of advancing to various points, then you'll find that in the theoretical long run, going all-in in that situation wins more money than folding on average for almost all standard tournament payout structures.

It's natural to be risk-averse and want to guarantee some payout over risking nothing for a larger payout. But that's why poker is hard: because you have to overcome your instincts if you want to win the most money in the long run.

Now, I'll grant that we don't have a lifetime of thousands of WSOP main events to play and let the long run even out, so if I'm sitting there with a chance to cash and the bragging rights that go with it, I may forgo the +EV move in order to have a better chance at surviving, but that's bringing in outside factors. But if we go with the assumption that the goal is to simply make the move that wins the most money on average, then folding AA is almost never correct even in bubble situations (outside of satellites and contrived tournaments that have very unusual payout structures).