2008 Kentucky Derby

Horsemen are the best. Churchill is pretty accomadating given the time.
There may be a capacity issue.

 

Big Brown may get out in front from the 20 spot, but I can't see him doing that and then staying in front for a mile and a quarter. There are a ton of unanswered questions on Big Brown, who has only three career starts, and I just can't put him on top. I'll include him in my trifectas — what ELSE would a person with my username bet — but there are some quality horses with attractive odds.

If anyone's wondering what kind of weather they'll have, Friday and Saturday they're calling for mid-70s with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms.

 

It's been 35 years since Big Red. Here's guessing Big Brown does something to draw comparison over the next six weeks.

Big Brown, Smooth Air, Court Vision in that order.

 

I haven't bet a TC race in 20 years, but I am hoofing it with a few hundred this weekend if the odds are still 3-1 on this horse.

I predict at least a four-length win, even from 20.

 

I actually got a mild bit of ironic revenge a few years later. A buddy and I were in Louisville and went to the track. We got there really early, even before the ticket windows opened. The security guy went ahead and let us in for free. I know they haven't gone under because they didn't get my $2 admission that day, but it gave me a laugh.

 

Trainer says Big Brown likes to run from the outside and he should have enough speed to get out in front, assuming he gets a good break. I think he's still definitely in the money. Maybe the Polytrack Bluegrass was a fluke for Pyro, though? His workouts have been impressive.

This whole Polytrack issue is confusing as hell. I'm inclined to exclude Polytrack races, altogether, when picking Triple Crown races. But then you have a horse like Santa Anita winner Colonel John, which has never even run on a dirt track but whose workouts suggest it isn't going to be a factor for him.

To me, Pyro remains the key to the race. He's going to be out of my triple but I know damn well he can screw me up.

 

Let's put it this way . . . if Kent sends BB on or close to the lead early, and the horse still manages to win from the 20, with all the other speed in this race, he's one of the five best horses ever to RUN in the Derby, let alone win it.

Can he do it? Maybe. Would I take 3-1 on him, under the conditions? No.

 

Which horse is going to set the early pace?

 

Roussel has said that they're going to send Capturetheglory . . . and given that they're stuck in 19, Eddie Baird and Gayego don't have much choice.

So Dutrow can try to outrun those to speedsters drawn just inside him . . . or try to drop a bit inside off the break without giving away too much ground.

The draw was VERY bad for BB, on multiple levels.

 

And that is why I am making the ultra-rare grip to the horse betting window.

 

If he can do all that in his fourth career start, you'll get paid . . . not enough, given the risk/reward, but, hey . . .

 

Look for Pyro to do big things. I have never seen the horse race, but it has a great name.