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140th Kentucky Derby thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by RedHotChiliPrepper, Apr 29, 2014.

  1. The Run for the Roses is Saturday, post draw is Wednesday at 5.

    Early Vegas odds have California Chrome as the favorite, with good reason. He's easily the best horse in the field from what I've seen, but I'm always skeptical on Santa Anita Derby winners. Something about the transfer from synthetic tracks to dirt don't seem to work out well -- Yes, I know I'll Have Another was a Santa Anita Derby winner.

    If I had to pick my top two right now I'd go with California Chrome and Wicked Strong. I don't think Samraat's a candidate to win, but could sneak in to the top three or four.

    Who you got?
  2. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    I have the over/under on this thread's page count at ... 2.

    Horseracing has the same impact as boxing these days.
  3. Football_Bat

    Football_Bat Well-Known Member

    I somehow missed the other 139 Kentucky Derby threads.
  4. FishHack76

    FishHack76 Active Member

    First trip to the Derby, and I'm really interested to see if California Chrome can live up to billing. I think there's a considerable chance he might not. Like you, I'm sometimes skeptical of California horses in the Derby. I think Santa Anita switched to dirt a couple years ago but it's still a notoriously faster track than Churchill or mostly anywhere else for that matter.

    One of my questions on Chrome is will he race well outside his home state. If he gets a slow jump out of that gate like he did at the Santa Anita Derby, the answer may be no.

    I'd love to see him shine in Louisville, though, but if he falters, it could be almost anybody's race.

    I'm interested to see if Danza's performance in the Arkansas Derby was a fluke and he's just a lightly raced colt that's starting to come into his own. I don't think he'll be 41-1 again (could only hope), but I will personally put down some dollars if he's, say, 10-1 or higher.

    I like that Wicked Strong's sire is Hard Spun, personally one of my favorite Derby horses. I liked Hard Spun when he won the Lecomte Stakes and took him and Street Sense in $10 future bets. That was a fun stretch run knowing I had it locked up. I watched that race while sweaty and exhausted after moving into an apartment. We had a TV set on the floor and when those two broke away, I was screaming, "I won!" My dad said, "It's not over yet." I responded, "You don't understand. I have that horse and that horse." Just wish I had bet the exacta.
    Wicked Strong looks like a deep closer and that could help if the early speed all materializes. He seems inconsistent, not great off a layoff and a slow starter. He also might need the right post position to win.

    Samraat on the other hand is as consistent as they come and I'm looking at him as good potential underneath horse. I don't know if the distance will be too much after his first loss came at a mile and an eighth.

    Vicar's in Trouble got a really favorable pace in the Louisiana Derby and likely won't get to take it easy in the early going this time. He's won three of his last four races, however, and was forced four wide in the lone defeat.

    I'm interested if the rest of the card will be bettable. I'm hoping so. I'm probably going to be watching the toteboard for the Derby to see if anything pops out.

    Good luck to everyone.
  5. Bubbler

    Bubbler Active Member

    Oh? So you're the jockey of Secretariat and still all-time record-holder in our signature event? And you're disabled? And you appear at events on our grounds? Cool! You are a legend Ron Turcotte!

    You want a parking pass too? Go fuck yourself running ...


    I love the Derby, and Churchill Downs is one of the most iconic sports venues I've been to/covered events at, but they can suck a big giant dick for this shit.
  6. FishHack76

    FishHack76 Active Member

    1. Vicar's in Trouble 20-1
    2. Harry's Holiday 50-1
    3. Uncle Sigh 30-1
    4. Danza 10-1
    5. California Chrome 5-2
    6. Samraat 15-1
    7. We Miss Artie 50-1
    8. General A Rod 15-1
    9. Vinceremos 30-1
    10. Wildcat Red 15-1
    11. Hoppertunity 6-1
    12. Dance with Fate 20-1
    13. Chitu 20-1
    14. Medal Count 20-1
    15. Tapiture 15-1
    16. Intense Holiday 12-1
    17. Commanding Curve 50-1
    18. Candy Boy 20-1
    19. Ride On Curlin 15-1
    20. Wicked Strong 8-1
  7. silvercharm

    silvercharm Member

    I haven't been to Churchill Downs since covering the 1997 Derby, and I vowed I'd never go again unless I was covering the event. The things you see and the access you have in the media would make going as a common spectator a downer. That said, I haven't been in almost 20 years, and given what what was written above about Ron Turcotte, my guess is CD has put the screws to the media, too.

    My pick, after the posts were drawn, is Hopperunity. Love the way he finished up on a speed-favoring track in the SA Derby, has a winning running style, and his trainer knows how to bring a horse into the Derby. Good pedigree, too.
  8. playthrough

    playthrough Moderator Staff Member

    Not for two minutes on the first Saturday in May.
  9. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    I'm leaning to a 4, 5, 11, 15, 19 box. But I've got a lot of reading to do between now and post time.
  10. FishHack76

    FishHack76 Active Member

    Exacta, trifecta or superfecta box?
  11. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member

    Now they're claiming it was bad communication, hiding behind the one executive (Asher) everybody likes. They should be ashamed, but there's no shame there, whatsoever. They like the casino business so damn much, they should spin off the tracks.
  12. Ben_Hecht

    Ben_Hecht Active Member

    They applied the ultimate screw when they converted the Joe Hirsch Press Box to a giant high-roller big cash screw hole (the "Mansion", they call it).

    Contemptable types . . . only thing they're worried about is the price of the common.
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