110th U.S. Open running thread

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

Tiger is going to win or miss the cut. Nowhere in between.

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

I won't take that bet. I figure somewhere in between. But if I absolutely HAD to pick one of those extremes, I would say more likely to miss the cut than win the whole thing.

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

How much you willing to lay on that?

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

I'm not sure that odds will really help in this tournament with Pebble Beach coming into play. The wind seems to plays its own role during tournaments at Pebble Beach. There was an article that mentioned the strong winds at No. 17, a par-3 that can make or break a score. I think Mickelson has the best chance to win, but I wouldn't be suprised to see a dark-horse come out and make a run.

Here's a link to that article I mentioned.
http://www.mercurynews.com/golf/ci_15307831

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

Not a damn thing. But I figured since everybody is making predictions, I might as well throw my completely wild ass guess in there too.

For what it's worth, though, I could see him winning it. It's Pebble. Tiger loves him some Pebble.

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

Oh, come on. I'll give you odds.

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

2017 Open goes to Erin Hills, about 20 miles northwest of Milwaukee.

Mmmm . . . brats and beer!

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

That's all very interesting but look at the Pebble Beach U.S. Open winners, all in the Hall of Fame except Tiger (who will be): Nicklaus, Watson, Kite, Woods. Plus, a web site I forgot brought up the U.S. Open winners in years ending in a zero: Woods, Hale Irwin, Nicklaus, Tony Jacklin (last Euro to win a U.S. Open), Palmer, Hogan, Lawson Little, Bobby Jones, Edward Ray, Alex Smith and Harry Vardon. Everyone except Ray and Smith are in the Hall of Fame.
So far, pretenders don't win Opens at Pebble.

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

Els at 20:1 seems like a bet to me.

and playthrough is dead on; Tiger should be more like 20 or 25:1

In fact, I'd say McIlroy at 25:1 is a better bet at that number than Woods should be.

 

Re: 110th U.S. Open open running thread

If you're a sports book oddsmaker in Vegas and you set the odds of Tiger winning at 25-1 and he pulled it off, you'd be out of a job before the final putt hit the bottom of the cup. I don't think he can win either, and I think the chances he'll snap-hook one in the ocean are more like 4-1. But there are so many Tiger sycophants out there willing to put money on Tiger no matter what -- and, to be fair, some genuine gamblers who would immediately recognize a good long shot -- that any sports book would be nuts to set the number that high.

It's like how Bill Simmons always goes on his podcast during the NFL season and says "I disagree with the line for this game. This team should be favored by more/less." I seriously don't think he understands gambling sometimes.

The line is not a prediction of who Vegas thinks will win, or by how much. Not really anyway. It's an enticement so that people will wager enough money on that person or team so that Vegas will come out ahead either way. You could pay out at 6-1 for a Tiger win and not be thrilled, but not take a bath that would bankrupt the casino. Payout at 25-1 on a Tiger victory? Ouch.