9/11/21 / Afghanistan thread

Even if the Taliban eventually get their foreign reserves back the country is heading for economic collapse. The country only exports about a billion dollars a year of fruit and nuts on the official economy and whatever they sell in the international drug market. Per capita income is currently about $2,000 per capita. The loss of the international aid money and money the NATO forces threw off will damage the economy. People talk about Afghanistan having vast mineral riches and maybe they do. But logistically the country is destined to be poor. Landlocked and surrounded by dysfunctional neighbors.

 

One of whom is China.
How they react when the dust settles will be interesting. Do they seal their small border and isolate themselves from Afghanistan?
Do they try to build a diplomatic relationship to prop up and tame the Taliban, thus gaining access to its resources as well as a huge propaganda win over the U.S.?
Do they roll in to fill our void, but with a much more ruthless approach?
Or do they just pounce on the United States' moment of weakness to finally invade Taiwan?

 

If the Chinese invaded and successfully controlled Afghanistan would be a bad thing for the locals (though if the alternative is the Taliban the Chinese might not be so bad). But from a United States security perspective it would be a good thing. China would crack down on potential terrorist cells. The Chinese would not tolerate potential terrorists because they could never be sure they would not attack Chinese forces.

And I really don't think there are enough minerals in Afghanistan to cover the cost of an invasion and occupation.

 

• Unlikely. There are many ways into Xinjiang other than the Wakhan Corridor, and it's not like terrorists are known for respecting national borders, so it's a feeble solution at best. Plus, sealing the border during peacetime would run counter to China's messaging as a friendly, responsible neighbor that wants to help downtrodden people the world over.
• Beijing is already building a relationship with the Taliban and will continue to do so, up to and including running interference for it at the UN. The language China's diplomatic corps and state media are using -- that China "respects Afghans' choice", for instance -- suggests Beijing will view a Taliban-led government as legitimate as long as it doesn't become hostile to Chinese interests. China has already sunk a lot of money into Afghanistan and has pledged even more, so locking down friendly relations with whoever runs the show in Kabul is hardly surprising.
• Highly unlikely. China has a single military base on foreign soil (in Djibouti) and is averse to putting PLA boots on the ground outside of what it views as its core territory unless it's in UN-sanctioned peacekeeping operations. So far, grey zone tactics like the maritime militia and economic coercion have been enough to get China what it wants. China's whole pitch is that it's not like the imperialist West and is a responsible global actor standing up for the developing world, so stationing troops in Afghanistan -- even with the best, most benign of intentions -- would light on fire all that and China's allure as a counterweight to the rapacious, neoliberal West.
• The Washington war machine would be tumescent at the prospect of China invading Taiwan. Godless commies violently overthrowing a US-friendly democracy would give everyone in the West exactly what they want. Coming to Taiwan's rescue gets the stink of Afghanistan off Biden and the Democrats, Republicans get to burnish their anti-communist credentials and blame Biden/Obama/Clinton for letting China get strong enough to try such antics, defense contractors get to keep raking in money, and years of Western messaging about how China is a danger to the international order that must be contained get instant validation. It's Iraq invading Kuwait all over again, right down to the aggressor's refusal to recognize the victim's sovereignty. What's more, China knows all this. It sees support for defending Taiwan is hardening among the US policy elite and the public. Even if Chinese leadership is united behind unification by force -- and there's no reason to assume that -- there is no need for Beijing to do so right now. China has the luxury of time (it will always be on Taiwan's doorstep, unlike the US), and Chinese politics don't act on American timelines. Rhetoric about how the fall of Kabul is a come to Xi-sus moment for Taipei is red meat for a triumphalist domestic audience and a warning to Taiwan not to upset the status quo, not a prelude to armed conflict.

 

"Fuck the Judean Peoples Front! Splitters!"

 

While you clearly know the subject matter far more than me, I think you greatly overestimate the American people’s willingness to spend blood and treasure defending a nation we care (or even know) little about. Not to mention a war with China would cause 100x more damage to the economy than Covid and of course there’s the dirty little secret that something like 90% of the world’s microchips are made in Taiwan. So risking that supply chain is a non-starter.

 

It would take years to replicate the factories and train the workforce.

 

We are already seeing shortages and price spikes caused by shipping delays from China. If you want mega-inflation on a wide array of consumer goods, cut off trade with China completely. I'm sure telling consumers "Don't worry, we'll source those computer chips for your new cars and bicycle frames and fishing lures elsewhere. Give us a couple years to build the factories" would calm things down.