Reddit vs. Wall Street

I don't remember details and don't want to look to even try to figure it out, but wasn't the Iraqi dinar stuff one of those Q-anon / Trump things? Like Trump was going to make it appreciate in value somehow and there were followers of his trading dollars for them?

 

JFC

Alex Kearns died thinking he owed hundreds of thousands for stock market losses on Robinhood. His parents have sued over his suicide.

 

There were call options with a strike price of 300 that expire TOMORROW. ... trading at $6. At any other time in my life, I would have been tripping all over myself to sell those options. I didn't touch it, though. This is beyond insanity.

Everything happening in markets right now feels like a blow off top coming. I may be wrong about this, because every time I think it, the Fed finds a way to intervene. But yields are starting to spike, and the yield on the 10-year treasury is right around where the dividend on the S&P 500 is. Which takes away the "There is no alternative" rationale for owning stocks at insane valuations.

One thing to keep in mind about the Fed. People mistakenly think "The Fed can control interest rates," but the only thing the Fed can actually control is the short end of the curve -- the Fed Funds / overnight rate. They can do things around the margins to influence the long end with the mix of bonds they are buying in their QE purchases. But if this keeps going, it will be a test of their resolve. They will have to throw all pretense out the window and do it in an iron-fisted, Soviet-style price fixing way, and if they go there, the con is over for them anyhow.

Because of the Fed, we have been in a 30 year or so bond bull market, and people forget what happens when the bond vigilantes get the upper hand. Right now, they are smelling inflation -- all of the money that has been created out of thin air and dumped out there PLUS the insane amount of fiscal spending the new administration is talking about. If they actually got a $15 minimum wage, it wouldn't help either. If the bond vigilantes actually manage to retake the debt markets from Jay Powell and his small group of arrogant monetary mandarins, look out below. Debt and all of the asset bubbles that have grown via that debt are not going to have an easy time of it.

If prices of consumer goods take off (more than they already have. ... commodity prices have skyrocketed) because of the recklessness of those idiots, we are staring down 1970s stagflation again. Which beyond how the stock market does is going to affect all of us in a really tough way.