Gambling Thread

This is largely a myth that Vegas lines go down to the final buzzer so often. Bettors always remember the games they win on the next to last play.
I went back and looked at a random college hoops Saturday in January. Of 108 games with posted lines, 27 spreads were decided by the margin of one possession (1 to 3 points) but nearly twice as many (52) were decided by double-digit differences in the spread. (This is why you NEVER EVER NEVER EVER NEVER EVER play teasers in basketball.)
I'm sure somewhere in the vast Internet universe there are similar numbers for entire football and basketball seasons.

 

I love how Coastal-Kansas is the get out Hawaii game tonight.

 

We all done burning our money thinking the Browns are a value pick?

 

Some interesting college football lines up on VegasInsider.
Can I jump on San Jose State -3 1/2 at Penn State? I don't think Penn State even shows up for that one.

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

 

Oof. Just realized the Lions were -2 1/2. So they blow a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter, AND a chance to salvage the win and the cover with a dropped touchdown pass in the final seconds. That's a tough beat right there.

 

For the room.

First Half lines for Cowboys-Rams.

One book has Dallas +0.5 -125
Another has Rams +1.5 -110

If I put $100 on Dallas and $94 on the Rams, I am guaranteed to lose $14.50 unless it’s tied or Rams losing by 1. Then I win $166.

Good value?

 

You're betting on a very specific outcome in a game with an enormous amount of variance. It's not a ton of money to take a flyer on if you're up a bit and feeling frisky, but I can't see how it's a good bet when there is only one path to winning. It feels like you're hitting on 20 in blackjack just to say you did it.

 

I wouldn’t do it for a single point. But a push on a tie and a win one point is interesting.

What I’m choosing to do anyway:
U27 first half. $100 at -110
O25 first half $75 at +105 at another shop.

I may play the $20-25 in game. SNF is often under first half.

 

Dallas by 1 at half. Well, shit. But the 27 was beautiful.

 

Moreover, the books aren't predicting the final margin or the total. Their job is to set numbers that attract equal action on both sides. So, yes, their numbers might very well have semblance of the outcome, but that's not their goal.
Used to have to edit a "writer" who would frequently use, "Las Vegas thinks Plucky U is eight points worse than This Week's Opponent, but ..."
Same "writer" also used "chopped liver" as in a metaphor.