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President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Moderator1, Nov 12, 2016.

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  1. britwrit

    britwrit Well-Known Member

    If they were so concerned about unifying the party, one or more would've dropped out by now. Instead, having seen what happened with the GOP in 2016, they're.... hoping for a brokered convention?

    Just to be clear, I'm not a Bernie supporter. Expats vote in the last state they lived in and when New Jersey rolls around on June 2, I don't know who I'm going for. That being said, to stop a Sanders nomination something concrete has to be done. Wishing for some charismatic moderate candidate to pop out of the woodwork at the eleventh hour isn't that.
     
  2. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    No outing, but it looks like Kudlow used to post here ...

     
    HanSenSE likes this.
  3. BitterYoungMatador2

    BitterYoungMatador2 Well-Known Member

  4. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    There have only been three states to select delegates. Any candidate with the funds to keep going is likely to do so until after Super Tuesday. And I may note that at one point there were 21 candidates, so two-thirds of the field HAVE dropped out.
     
  5. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    Politics aside, anyone voting for Bernie is putting the future of the country in the hands of a 78-year-old recent heart-attack victim who is soon entering the most stressful time of his life.

    #hardpass
     
    Jesus_Muscatel and OscarMadison like this.
  6. britwrit

    britwrit Well-Known Member

    Yeah, but Bloomberg and to a lesser extent, Tom Steyer, have joined. That alone more than makes up for the Cory Bookers and Kamala Harrises of the world.

    Living in Britain. I've seen this same show play out - and with a lot more anguish for me - with Brexit. After the referendum, the Remain side never got their act together. Forces were joined too late. Too many wonderful pie-in-the-sky plans were floated by this pol or that pol. Too much time was wasted.

    Dropping out after Super Tuesday is too late. If Bernie wins California and Texas and some other states, he'll have too much momentum.

    If Bloomberg really wants to stop Sanders, he embraces Biden or Klobuchar or whoever tonight on stage. He cries out that they're the next President of the United States and he'll spend every last dime he has to see it happen. Otherwise, it just doesn't mean anything.

    I'm not saying what should happen. I'm saying what is happening.
     
  7. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    1) Larry Kudlow is a carnival barker.
    2) Donald Trump has spent the last 3 1/2 years tying himself to the biggest asset bubble in history. Now the clowns around him are going to desperately try to keep it propped up for the next 9 months, because Trump thinks the key to getting reelected is the level of the the Dow Jones Industrial Average. All they have is lame jawboning, though, and it's sad. It's example 1 million of how shallow and misguided we have become.

    The bubble staying intact is beyond Donald Trump's control. It's a function of an insane amount of liquidity having been injected into the global banking system by central banks around the world, largely via trillions upon trillions of dollars of asset purchases (create money out of thin air and hijack the debt markets with it) that drove down yields and incentivized risky and irrational behavior. That is what happens when you manipulate markets to turn them into casinos thinking that juicing stock market levels artificially on the back of margin and leverage are a proxy for economic health. It's been the opposite. The global economy has been sick for the last decade and debt levels are weighing down economic growth. We essentially pulled a lot of growth from the future forward and unlike the 90s and early 2000s when they got busy doing this, it no longer can buy 3, 4 percent growth. The higher the debt levels went, the more extreme the measures they need to take to prop things up, and the lower the levels of growth they get for the manipulation. They went bananas after 2008, rather than allowing the bad debt they were responsible for to reset. So we are stagnating at below-trend growth and the debt levels have shot through the roof. They fubured us.

    Fiscally, Trump should have been a disaster for US equities if fundamentals mattered -- but they don't in the face of a huge amount of monetary inflation, which overwhelms everything else and skews markets so that participants can no longer calibrate risk. Trump has instituted tariffs, run huge budget deficits and been a generally unstable and unpredictable force. Those are things that would be negative for equities in a free market environment. The only thing he did that helped contribute to the bubble was getting through a pretty big tax reduction, but that was a one-time sugar high. It was important, because it came while the Federal Reserve was trying to extricate itself of the mess it has made with a couple of 25 basis point rate hikes and trying to let assets roll off the massive balance sheet they built up. That started to pop the bubble and the tax cuts helped spur some stock buybacks, but it was not going to be enough to keep the bubble from popping a year ago. So the stock market buckled at the end of 2018, early 2019, because it can only stay propped up on increasing amounts of margin and debt, and they were trying to stop spiking the punch bowl. ... and when the predictble happened, they completely reversed, brought rates right back down over a series of 25 basis point cuts. ... and this past September when credit markets started to crack, they stepped in in batshit fashion, buying notes and bills at a very aggressive pace and doing repo operations that undid the year and a half of tapering they had done. ... in just a few short months. Compelete panic. They have injected billions of dollars into the banking system in a very short time -- money created out of thin air being thrown into the casino-- and clueless as they were, they didn't expect to it create the stock-buying frenzy we saw late last year until now

    People don't realize that they are witnessing a credit-induced bubble that can only stay propped up as long as escalating amounts of debt are somehow enabled -- something they have somehow managed to do since the financial crisis in 2008. It requires central banks to destroy their currencies through more and more aggressive debasement measures. I am amazed at what they have been able to do over the last 10 years, but there will be a limit where markets crack under the weight of the debt they are leaving behind. Unfortunately, the longer they can hold off the miserable reckoning they will have saddled us with, the worse it is making that reckoning. They pulled the future growth forward to create an artificial sugar high that didn't even give us anything productive. It was money that ended up misallocated because of the skewed incentives they create. So we're much worse off. It comes with a future consequence, too, because we are now sitting on a debt bomb unlike anything in history. And Donald Trump, moron he always has been, tied himself to it because the debt and margin were sending stocks flying in a frenzy and he thinks that is good -- even if the cause is something artificial and unsustainable. The only question is whether the credit crisis that is coming happens before election day. He has no control over that. Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Haruhiko Kuroda, Mark Carney and Yi Gang do. I am not sure he understands that, although he has used his moronic tweets to try to set up Jay Powell to be his fall guy, so maybe he's sharper than I am giving him credit for.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2020
    Inky_Wretch likes this.
  8. DanOregon

    DanOregon Well-Known Member

    And these clowns never seem to advise people to sell during a spike.
     
  9. heyabbott

    heyabbott Well-Known Member

    as opposed to demented, perverted, lying, malevolent sociopath whose only interests are personal aggrandizement, hurting others and applause.
     
  10. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    I was really hoping Obama's election put an end to old people as POTUS. Unfortunately, the Boomer is still too strong in the USA.
     
    Driftwood likes this.
  11. heyabbott

    heyabbott Well-Known Member

    Where are the solid, heavyweight politicians between 40 and 60? Paul Ryan, Rand Paul and Kevin McCarthy. weak men, intellectually and politically. Paul tries to come off above mundane politics and tries to portray himself as an ideologically pure person. His ideology is simplistic flotsam
     
    Driftwood and Inky_Wretch like this.
  12. DanOregon

    DanOregon Well-Known Member

    For years the Democratic Party has actively protected incumbents - whether through unofficial policy or stating that primary challenges only make it easier for the GOP to flip a seat. It's resulted in a very old Democratic caucus that is jarringly out of step with its base. Fewer opportunities for younger aspiring politicians mean fewer, younger aspiring politicians. Pelosi really should have "encouraged" about 10 percent of her older members in safe districts to retire this year.

    Say one thing for the GOP - every 12 years you can count on another "Revolution" where a group of outsiders accuse the existing leadership of getting to comfortable in DC. Boehner was part of the group that ousted Delay and ended up getting bounced himself.
     
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