Election Day Poll No. Whatever

According to the early voting figures, turnout should be pretty good this year -- unless all the Clinton voters already checked in, which they haven't, at least not all of them. My wife Alice will vote Tuesday, for one.

 

That's the YF version of the ice bucket challenge.

 

Just like with the first letter on a Friday, got to question the timing of the latest Comey letter: Sunday afternoon, after all the shows, and when people are engrossed in NFL despite its depressed ratings. Monday papers may be too little, too late. Still don't think this is enough to derail a Clinton win.

 

According to early voting mavens, this is not surprising, as there are more registered Republicans than Democrats by about 2 percent.
One thing that continues in every poll I've seen that has included the breakdown is that those who early voted chose Clinton by a wider margin than the overall poll. I don't think that makes the poll wrong, but it does indicate Clinton's get out the vote organization is functioning well. Early voting is about a third of all votes. That's one hell of a large sample size.

 

Which means Trump is running about two points *behind* Romney in early voting, and Romney lost the state by five

 

My bad. Sorry. I've been absorbing way too much data about way too many places the past week.

 

Here's how I think it goes down:

NH falls for Trump, but PA goes for Clinton. Trump wins Ohio & NC, but Clinton takes Virginia. I think Colorado is going to break for Trump, but Nevada is going for Clinton. Which leaves Florida. I think whoever wins Florida, wins the election. I think it's going to be Clinton in FL by the width of a hanging chad, but it's going to be after midnight (CT) before it's called. She finishes with a 294-244 margin in the EC.

 

Here's one prediction I'll make. That new VoteCastr thing Slate is wheeling out that will start projecting results starting at 8 a.m. Eastern (!) tomorrow is going to make for a very, very choppy day of trading on Wall Street.

 

NV, NC and FL are now various (light) shades of blue on 538. Looks like their overall and battleground state winning percentage has shifted 2-3 percentage points toward Clinton today. Given that that includes poll results from before the second Comey letter and that Hispanic turnout seems to be higher than expected, I think it means Florida will go blue and place the election in her column relatively early.

 

People are mighty touchy about John Wayne.