Draft Kings

Think there was a thing in How Not To Be Wrong about a lottery syndicate from MIT. Can't remember what lotto they were playing (I assume Mass) but there was a specific game where, in specific circumstances, the expected value was > $1. IIRC they ran into the problem where, eventually word got out, other syndicates got in on the deal, and that increased the likelihood of split prizes, which lowered the expected value again. State knew what was going on but didn't care, because they made money either way. Only other players were getting screwed.

 

I have a feeling that the more sleaze that gets exposed the partner leagues will be unpartnering with these sites.

 

Had never heard of it ... here's a link to a story about it.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/cri...illion-report-article-1.1128482#ixzz22o5j6WxV

 

Cool.
As an aside: How Not To Be Wrong was a really cool book (written by a UW-Madison professor, so of course it rocked!). Probably doesn't include anything you didn't already know, but was a basic introduction to various forms of statistical modeling, coupled with the history of them (the original insights the lead to the breakthroughs, etc.) Really nerded out on the history part, but also was good in a "here are several different ways to think about the world around you" way, too.

 

Aimed way too low:

 

She used to work for WWE so she has a lot of experience working for fixed outcomes.

 

From Deadspin.....

Use promo code "WEAREFUCKED"

 

The guy in the original story who leaked the lineup data couldn't have used the data to win the $350K. There's no proof that insiders are using lineup data to win on other sites. Its seems that insiders tend to win on other sites, but part of that has to be that they are the type of people that can win at these games by creating a sophisticated system.

That MIT gambling group story was fascinating when it came out. The game was odd the way it reset every few weeks and the lottery didn't notice anything was wrong even though certain stores' machines had been practically taken over by these groups.

 

I'd be curious to know if all of this bad publicity is causing a rush of people cashing out their accounts.

 

That might be the smart move, at least sooner rather than later. Despite the few differences between the two, I still think this daily fantasy craze goes the way of online poker sites. I had a friend who had a few grand tied up in his poker account when they were shut down. He got some of it out, but it took a long time.

 

Yeah, I had a couple hundred in mine, but I got it out when they tacked the online poker prohibition to the SAFE Port Act back in, what, 2006? I got it out pretty well ahead of when the Feds seized all the online accounts of the poker sites, but a few of my friends hadn't gotten their out. Don't think they ever got it back.

If I played DFS, I'd do the same and get it out now.

 

I don't foresee any trouble getting with people getting their money out of DFS sites. I don't think accounts are going to be seized or frozen by the government or that the banks would refuse to process a transaction. If the sites go out of business because of a change in the law, there will be cash there. The sites would have to be monumentally stupid to be playing with the players' money when they are getting huge venture capital investments.