2016 MLB Postseason Thread

Let's get it started!

From Vegas Insider, odds to win the World Series:

Chicago Cubs 9/4
Boston Red Sox 6/1
Texas Rangers 6/1
Washington Nationals 7/1
Cleveland Indians 8/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 10/1
Toronto Blue Jays 12/1
New York Mets 16/1
San Francisco Giants 18/1
Baltimore Orioles 20/1

Fun starts Tuesday night with Baltimore at Toronto. Neither team had the luxury of choosing its preferred starter, so we don't know. I've seen talk of Jimenez for the O's. The Jays had to use Happ and Sanchez this weekend, so they're really up in the air.

Wednesday night it's the Giants (Bumgarner on full rest) against the Mets (Syndergaard on extra rest). All the makings of a classic.

 

Take the Giants at 18-1, it's an an even year.

 

Jayson Stark is going to get 178 angry emails from one guy for writing this:

. What's up with Jake? Two different execs went out of their way to discuss the recent issues of Jake Arrieta, a guy whose work over his past 16 starts (4.44 ERA) looks a lot different than the superhuman impression he'd been doing over the previous year and a half. "Never seen him look so ordinary," one NL exec said after Arrieta's last start. "I would be concerned if I was them."

Who will win the World Series? It's not who you think

 

Scuttlebutt here in Toronto is it might be Liriano - who was great against the O's here last week - or Stroman.

 

The only decent value in those prop bets is Dodgers at 10-1

 

If I have to be worried about Arrieta, then I get to believe Hendricks' Maddux impression is real so it balances out.

 

I don't know how this compares historically, but against righties the Dodgers have an OPS of .772 and a home run every 29 PAs, and against lefties they have an OPS of .622 and a home run every 49 PAs. I assume the Nats will have four or five lefties out of the bullpen in addition to Gonzalez's start. (It doesn't sound like they're bumping him up in the rotation to get him two starts. Some teams would.)

 

Even for him, that season-long passionate defense of Arrieta was a bizarre episode. It was pretty obvious, starting around the no-hitter, that he was struggling with his control this season.

The guy pitched around 250 innings last year, nearly 100 more than he'd ever thrown in a season, I think. I remember that Mark Buehrle was ungodly wretched the year after the White Sox won the World Series. I'm sure it's happened to other guys, too. But OOP made it his mission from May onward to stand up for Arrieta's honor. I don't get it.

 

Isn't that your answer?

 

I know momentum doesn't mean a damn thing in this sport, but the Dodgers did not end on a high note. Assuming Kershaw gets the Game 1 assignment, and if he loses it again, watch out. OTOH, the only lefty the Nats have in their rotation is Gonzalez, so ...

But San Francisco. Why not? Not only as a fanboi, but is is an even year.

 

Cubs over Sox. Couldn't ask for a funner series for obvious reasons.

 

No, I did what I always do. I pointed out inaccuracies, such as the inaccurate statistics you used in your attacks on Arrieta. I pointed out the times you relied on misrepresenting his statistics to bolster your point, such as the five-inning Jake label for a pitcher who averaged over six innings per start this season. Arrieta wasn't as good as last season. I never argued that point, but you kept trolling on the issue all season and now you and LTL have dragged it here.

And JC, I believe Dickie was saying he doesn't understand my stance, not that he doesn't understand Arrieta's diminished performance. I don't know if anybody expected him to stay at last year's level. Of course, now that I explained it again, rather than let it go, he will probably keep going and piss all over this thread with it, too.